6 May 2026

Just 1 per cent of Reform voters would consider supporting Labour

New polling casts doubts on Labour plans to win over Nigel Farage’s voters

When Lucy Powell was elected Deputy Leader of the Labour Party in October 2025 she said: “We won’t win by trying to out-Reform Reform, but by building a broad progressive consensus.” She declared this in the wake of the Caerphilly by-election where Labour came third behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK despite having held the seat for the entirety of its history.

New research suggests Powell’s assessment was right. Polling by the UCL Policy Lab, shown exclusively to the New Statesman, has found only 1 per cent of Reform voters say there is a fair chance they can support Labour. Or, 99 per cent of Reform voters, no matter what they do, would not consider voting Labour.

While Labour has tried to neutralise immigration as an issue through Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposed reforms, only 18 per cent of those polled say they think Labour is best placed on the issue and Mahmood’s plans have not proved popular with other progressive voters or those considering Labour.

The polling will be fresh ammunition for those within Labour who warn that an approach of trying to “out-Reform Reform” will backfire by putting off progressive voters with little benefit. The polling also shows Labour in fourth place nationally, behind Reform, the Conservative Party and the Green Party. Twice as many undecided voters are considering voting Green as Labour. They are attracted to the Greens’ wealth tax and taxing high tech companies to fund the NHS, social care and dentistry. Voters also like taxing Amazon to help the high street.

If Labour were to win back just half of those intending to vote Green, they would surpass both the Tories and Reform. Whereas only 1 per cent of Reform voters would consider voting Labour, 13 per cent of Green voters would, alongside 15 per cent of Lib Dems.

Labour voters, Green Voters, Lib Dem voters and those considering Labour ahead of the local elections all prioritise the NHS and the cost of living. The polling shows there is a far clearer overlap between supporters of these parties than between Labour and Reform.

Not all Labour strategists will be convinced. Reform came second in 98 constituencies at the 2024 general election and in 89 of these seats they were second to a successful Labour candidate. But we are about to see a whole new set of election results which may once again upend much of the conventional wisdom in British politics.