More than 5,000 council seats are up for grabs on Thursday. Just four years ago, the Labour Party secured commanding majorities across much of the country, including London, Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire. Those same regional strongholds now look set to form the front line of what could become the most significant setback yet for Keir Starmer’s premiership. Mid-term losses are nothing new for governments struggling with the electorate. Historically, parties in power can expect to lose between a fifth and a third of their seats. Yet forecasts from Britain Elects suggest Labour may be about to lose two-thirds of its councillors.
Gorton and Denton offered a striking snapshot of a changing political landscape in urban England. Assumptions that Pakistani and Bangladeshi voters in northern cities would be less receptive to the Green Party than their southern counterparts appear to have been misplaced. Among white voters, Reform UK performed strongly, but among Muslim voters the result was a landslide for Green candidate Hannah Spencer.
That outcome raises a broader question: is the Green surge being overstated? Their progress in diverse urban areas is clear, but their performance in whiter urban communities remains less certain. Both types of areas will vote on 7 May. Gains in places like Hackney appear all but guaranteed, but weaker performances elsewhere may challenge the scale of their polling momentum.
Reform UK, meanwhile, continues to lead nationally, though signs of softening support are beginning to emerge. This does not appear to stem from a loss of voters so much as a consolidation among rival parties, whose supporters are increasingly certain of their choices. Tactical voting campaigns are seeing record engagement as concerns grow over the prospect of a Nigel Farage-led government, though messaging across these platforms is often inconsistent.
The English local elections themselves present a fragmented and uneven picture. A patchwork of contests stretches across East Anglia and the Home Counties, while notable gaps – such as much of Oxfordshire and Hertfordshire – highlight the piecemeal nature of England’s local government electoral cycle. Elections take place somewhere every year, but not in a way that offers a fully representative national snapshot.
Across the Home Counties, areas that returned Conservative and Liberal Democrat councillors in 2021 and 2022 are now, in many cases, represented by Liberal Democrat MPs. These regions may deliver a second, and potentially more damaging, blow to the Conservatives. Already under pressure in parts of Essex, Lancashire and the Black Country due to Reform advances, the party also faces losses among affluent liberal voters, particularly in Surrey. The scale of that shift remains uncertain, but it could leave Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch facing a stark electoral reckoning. London may offer limited relief, with by-election data suggesting Conservative support in parts of the capital is holding up better than expected.
Looking at historically safe Labour territory tells a similarly unsettled story. Wards such as Rusholme and Longsight in Greater Manchester delivered overwhelming Labour majorities in 2022, with vote shares exceeding 80 per cent. Yet more recently, Longsight swung decisively toward the Greens, with margins of up to 30 points.
In Werneth, Oldham, where Labour secured 88 per cent just four years ago, the party now faces a significant backlash, particularly among Muslim voters. Its campaign there appears to have largely conceded defeat – but the destination of those votes is unclear. While Gorton suggested a Green pathway, Werneth tells a different story. The Green campaign has shown little visible activity, and local reports indicate the contest may instead be between independent candidates.
This points to a more nuanced reality: while polling suggests many British Muslims may lean toward the Greens nationally, local dynamics often favour independent candidates with stronger community ties. As a result, forecasts projecting large-scale Green gains may be overstating the party’s true position.
Reform UK, despite signs of plateauing support, is still expected to make substantial gains, potentially securing more than a thousand seats. Counties such as Norfolk and Essex could shift dramatically, echoing patterns seen in 2025. The party’s reach is also being tested in traditionally Labour-held areas. In Sunderland, where boundary changes mean all seats are up for election, both Labour and Liberal Democrat sources have reportedly described a Reform victory as “likely,” with some hoping only to retain enough presence to form a credible opposition.
Alongside these contests, voters will also head to the polls in the Welsh Senedd elections, while Scotland is expected to deliver a more predictable parliamentary outcome. Taken together, this year’s “Super Thursday” offers a broad and volatile electoral landscape – though for Labour candidates, it may prove a particularly difficult one.
[Further reading: Stevenage woman keeps thinking about Nigel Farage]
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