Nigel Farage’s team has claimed a victory over YouGov after a row about the way the pollster measured support for Reform UK. Farage asserted that YouGov was breaking British Polling Council rules by underplaying Reform’s support – it consistently has them five points lower than the other major polling firms.
YouGov said it used two metrics to analyse that support: general voting intention, and then specific constituency voting intention which takes account of tactical voting and therefore gives a lower number for Reform – but is more reflective of how a general election held tomorrow might play out. The pollster has said it will publish both figures after Farage called the firm “deceptive”.
YouGov had Reform polling an average of 25 points, significantly lower than Opinium and More in Common, which both have the party averaging around 30 points. In those five points is the difference between Reform splitting the right-wing vote at an election and coming out with around two dozen seats, or winning the largest share of seats in the House of Commons and changing British politics.
Farage’s pitch to donors, newspaper proprietors, potential defectors and potential voters – the groups whose support he thinks he needs to get into No 10 – is that Reform is now the main party of the right, that the Tories are dead, and that he can win a general election. Polling is one of his main bits of evidence for this.
The reasons YouGov proceeded as it did was not because it is conspiring against Reform, but because it is paid lots of money to produce results that are as accurate as possible. But after Farage’s successful barrage, YouGov will publish two figures and the papers will run with the highest one. Polling for the Reform leader is as much a means to influence opinion as to measure it.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[Further reading: Beware: Reform UK wants to join you in your bedroom]
Content from our partners
Related
Join the debate
Subscribe here to commentWhat’s the use of opinion polls? Ban them. They are a distortion, a distraction and now a dysfunction.