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15 September 2021

Canadian election 2021: Will Justin Trudeau’s Liberals be defeated?

The Canadian prime minister’s decision to call a snap election is looking risky as polling day approaches.

By Ben Walker

Having governed without a majority since 2019, Canadian prime minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau has long hoped to achieve outright victory. Yet his party has not only fallen behind in the polls since he called a snap election in August, it now runs the risk of losing its largest party status in parliament.

Who’s ahead in the polls?

Who will win the most seats?

Who do Canadians want as prime minister?

There are many seats marked by forecaster 338Canada as being in “toss-up” territory, suggesting this contest, and Trudeau’s political future, may go to the wire.


Trudeau’s saving grace, however, is that he will likely have a much easier task of forming a coalition or gaining support in parliament than Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives. The third and fourth largest parties in Canada – the New Democrats and Bloc Québécois – are ideologically more inclined to work with Trudeau than they are with O’Toole.

Like Theresa May in the UK in 2017, Justin Trudeau may have committed a significant political mistake: it is possible that the Conservatives could become the largest party or even secure a majority, and he could lose the premiership on 20 September.

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