“Loss aversion” is a well-documented psychological phenomenon: as humans we have a cognitive bias that makes the pain of losing something we already have feel more powerful than the pleasure of gaining or the disappointment of not gaining something we didn’t. That may partly explain why the Conservatives, though thoroughly bruised by the council results we’ve received so far for the local elections, are taking a glass half-full attitude. Yes, they are down 250 councillors and an MP (a loss the Tories are attempting to write off as a personnel issue, given the circumstances in which Scott Benton departed parliament). But Ben Houchen defied the odds to win a historic third term as Tees Valley mayor with 53.6 per cent of ...

At the same time, Tory mayor Ben Houchen has held Tees Valley despite a landslide-level swing of 16.7 per cent to Labour, a testament to personality politics playing a greater role than ever. Across local councils, the situation is telling. This is the best barometer for the state of public opinion in the absence of a general election. Labour scored early blood, winning Hartlepool council off the Conservatives (the same seat it lost in a by-election three years ago). In Grimsby, Keir Starmer’s also enjoyed widespread gains unlike last year.  In the more traditional battlegrounds between Labour and the Conservatives, Labour won big, sweeping up Redditch, Thurrock and, most strikingly of all, Rushmoor, a council held by the Tories for the last ...

The local election results are sending an unambiguous message: Labour is heading for government and the Conservatives for opposition. Keir Starmer’s party has gained councils including Hartlepool, Redditch, Rushmoor and Thurrock and it has won the North Yorkshire mayoralty (encompassing Rishi Sunak’s own constituency). But what do the swings tell us about the likely outcome of the next general election? For an essential guide, follow Ben Walker’s unique ward-by-ward map on State of the Nation, our polling site, charting all 2,700 council contests. ...

These are a set of election results that take their time. Mayoral results that may or may not turn out to be eye-catching will not be announced until Saturday, by which time all right-minded people will be focused upon whether Ipswich Town will have returned to the Premier League after a 22-year absence. At this stage, however, two conclusions can be drawn. The first is that the Conservatives have had a very bad time. The second, and this is a little more tentative, is that – notwithstanding the first conclusion – the Tory plotters are not going to force out Rishi Sunak. We should start with the Tory performance. Bad council election results were priced in but losing half the seats they ...

Three years is a very long time in politics. Back in 2021, as the Conservatives triumphed against Labour in the Hartlepool by-election, Boris Johnson was eyeing a decade in power. Keir Starmer, having failed to revive his party’s electoral fortunes, was contemplating resignation.  Today, the party’s positions have been diametrically reversed. The Tories have lost Hartlepool council to Labour (which won nine of the 12 seats contested) and it is Starmer who can eye a decade in power. The local election results so far confirm the conclusion that the national polls have long supported: Labour is on course for government; the Tories for opposition. In the Blackpool South by-election – a contest which Labour talked up as the most important – Starmer’s ...

John Swinney is a modest, mild-mannered man, but when you’re running to be SNP leader and Scotland’s next first minister it doesn’t pay to be too modest or too mild-mannered. So, when he launched his campaign today, he brought the swagger. This was John “Wayne” Swinney. He was, he boasted, a “strong, reassuring, experienced, skilled individual” who would “command the trust and confidence of people across this country”. The 60-year-old, who has been posited as a stop-gap leader for the struggling SNP, before making way for a younger model, was having none of it. “I. Am. No. Caretaker,” he said, sounding quite cross at the very thought. If he won the Holyrood election in 2026, he would serve the entirety of ...

Every part of England and Wales has an election today: 2,600 seats are being contested across 107 council areas. Nine regional mayors face the ballot. The East Midlands, the North East, and York and North Yorkshire will all elect mayors for the first time – a landmark moment for devolution. Then there are 25 London Assembly members (I’m told the Lib Dems are optimistic they’ll land their first ever constituency Assembly member in the South West area); and 37 police and crime commissioners. Watch out for whether Labour takes Hartlepool and Harlow councils. Both are totemic areas and key targets for Keir Starmer’s team. Keep an eye on the North East mayoral contest and its independent candidate Jamie Driscoll, the former ...

Gone, and quickly to be forgotten. Humza Yousaf’s brief spell as Scotland’s First Minister has ended much as many thought it would – with the recognition by his own party that his appointment had been a mistake. When the confidence of senior figures around him vanished – and it did – he had no choice, whatever the potential numbers in parliament might have been in a vote of no confidence. Yousaf’s resignation speech was measured and generous, which didn’t have much in common with his 13 months in office, dogged as they were by infighting, aggression, and the blaming of everyone else for his woes. He said that he bore no grudges, and nor should he. Few bore him ill will, but ...