For more than a century, Labour has been hegemonic in Wales, its run of victories surpassing that of any other force in the democratic world. Yet when the Caerphilly by-election result was announced this morning there were some inside the party relieved to have kept their deposit.
That gives you some sense of the scale of Labour’s humbling. In the Senedd contest, won by the nationalist Plaid Cymru, its vote plummeted to just 11 per cent (from 45.9 per cent). Labour lost here for many of the same reasons that it is trailing across the UK: a belief that a party that promised change has amounted to more of the same; enduring anger over the winter fuel payment cuts (often raised by voters) and weariness with squeezed living standards.
As Welsh First Minister, Eluned Morgan has routinely distanced herself from Keir Starmer, criticising welfare and immigration policy and championing the “red Welsh way”. But that counted for nothing in Caerphilly. Welsh Labour MPs cite the backlash against the 20mph speed limit – “a general feeling that we are always telling people how to live their lives” – as one of the many drags on the party’s vote. Unless something dramatic changes, it faces a heavy defeat in next May’s Senedd election.
But it isn’t only Labour that has cause for reflection today. Reform threw resources at this contest, with Nigel Farage visiting Caerphilly multiple times. Yet while the party won 36 per cent of the vote from a standing start (Tory support collapsed to 2 per cent), this was far eclipsed by Plaid Cymru’s 47.4 per cent.
And here lies a warning for Farage. A Survation opinion poll published a week ago showed a narrow Reform lead over Plaid Cymru (42 per cent to 38 per cent) and had the effect of mobilising an anti-Farage bloc. Waves of tactical support gave Plaid Cymru almost half the vote – far exceeding support for Welsh independence – and pushed turnout to 50.4 per cent, up from 44.3 per cent in the last devolved contest.
Even as Reform has led every UK opinion poll since May, Farage’s opponents have identified his Achilles heel. As I’ve often noted, for a populist, Farage is not particularly popular. Polls regularly show that around 60 per cent of voters do not want him to become prime minister. Labour MPs speak of One Nation Tories defecting to them. “There’s an anti-Reform majority in Wales and in the UK,” concludes a minister this morning.
But is it one that Starmer can harness? As Plaid Cymru’s unprecedented triumph shows, voters pay little heed to tradition in this new era. The SNP, the insurgent Greens and Gaza independents will all similarly frame themselves as the real alternative to Reform. For Starmer, the danger is that disillusioned progressives agree.
And the reverse dynamic applies: Reform will win tactical votes from conservatives who, above all, want Labour out of government – a regressive front, if you like. The anti-Farage majority might be enough to deny Reform power but that isn’t the same as a Labour majority.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[Further reading: I thought Labour would fix everything. I was wrong]
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