New Times,
New Thinking.

  1. Politics
22 November 2013

Lib Dem MP says Labour has “already won“ – here’s why he’s probably right

Former defence minister Nick Harvey rightly points to the mass defection of Lib Dem voters to Labour as the key point in Miliband's favour.

By George Eaton

Eighteen months ahead of general election day, former Lib Dem defence minister Nick Harvey is confidently calling the result. “Labour has already won,” he tells the Huffington Post’s Ned Simons. Harvey rightly points to the mass defection of Lib Dem voters to Labour as the key point in Ed Miliband’s favour. As I recently noted, Labour continues to retain the support of more than a quarter of 2010 Lib Dem voters, a swing greater than the cumulative increase in the Conservative vote between 1997 and 2010. 

The exodus of voters from Clegg’s party is the main reason why, despite suffering its second worst defeat since 1918 at the last election, Labour has now led in the polls for three years. Significantly, as Lord Ashcroft’s recent study of 2010 Lib Dem supporters noted, they are less likely to return to the fold than other voters. Ashcroft observed that “those who have moved to Labour are the most likely to say they are sure how they will vote (78%). This compares to just over a two thirds of those who say they would vote Conservative (69%), just under two thirds of those who say they would vote UKIP (62%) and less than half of those who would vote Green (42%).”

If this patten is repeated at the general election, the Tories stand to lose dozens of seats – there are 37 Conservative-Labour marginals where the third place Lib Dem vote is more than twice the margin of victory. As Harvey says, “The collapse of the Lib Dem vote with most going to the Labour party means that the Tories have probably lost two dozen seats before they even get out of bed.”

While existing Lib Dem MPs, many of whom enjoy large local followings, are likely to benefit from an incumbency effect, it is the Tories, not Labour, who will suffer as a result; Cameron’s party is in second place in 38 of the Lib Dems’ 57 seats.

The replacement of Clegg with a more left-wing figure, such as Vince Cable or Tim Farron, could have helped to shift the odds back in the Tories’ favour, but the moment for that has passed. Right now, it is hard to see how the Lib Dem recovery that the Tories so badly need will happen. 

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how Progressive Media Investments may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

Content from our partners
An innovative approach to regional equity
ADHD in the criminal justice system: a case for change – with Takeda
The power of place in tackling climate change