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7 December 2012

Rebel without a cigarette

Young people stop smoking.

By New Statesman

A smaller number of young people aged between 12 and 17 are now smoking, according to data released by Morgan Stanley.

Here’s a graph of its slow but steady decline, via Business Insider:

smoking trends

Morgan Stanley’s David Adelman lists the causes:

(i) Reduced social acceptability

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(ii) Increased prevalence of aggressive indoor smoking bans

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(iii) Higher prices and higher excise taxes

(iv) Some shift to other tobacco products, including moist smokeless tobacco, as well as lower-taxed cigarette alternatives (e.g., “pipe-your-own”)

(v) Ongoing ethnic shifts toward Asian- and Hispanic Americans, who have a far lower smoking prevalence (as well as substantially lower per capita cigarette consumption among those who smoke)

(vi) The multi-year substantial and continuing decline in youth smoking prevalence. Total youth consumption is modest, but like a python eating a pig, the impact of these demographic dynamics will be visible over an extended period of time as today’s young adult cohort ages. Nine-month year-to-date US cigarette consumption is down ~3 per cent , despite only very modest net pricing.