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20 July 2012

UK government borrowing rises

UK government borrowing rose by half a billion pounds in June.

By Helen Roxburgh

According to the Office for National Statistics, public sector net borrowing, excluding interventions such as bank bailouts, was £14.4bn last month.

While tax revenues increased in the month by 3.6 per cent to £40.9bn, total government spending only dipped by less than 1 per cent to £52.4bn.

This is up from £13.9bn in June 2011, and raises doubt over the government’s ability to meet full-year targets to bring down borrowing.

Borrowing in 2011-12 was also revised downwards. The ONS has said today that borrowing in the last financial year was actually £125.7bn, down from the original estimate of £127.6bn that it made last month.

The figures come after the International Monetary Fund said this week that the government should slow the pace of the tough austerity measures if the economy fails to pick up.

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Colin Edwards, economist at the Centre for Business and Economic Research (Cebr), said, “The ability of the government to borrow at historically low interest rates – the yield on 10-year government bonds currently stands around 1.5 per cent – provides some room for manoeuvre in the government’s attempts to reduce the deficit. Indeed, the debate over the pace of fiscal consolidation gathered momentum this week as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its forecast GDP growth for the UK to 0.2 per cent for 2012 from 0.8 per cent in its April forecast, bringing it closer to Cebr’s most recent forecast for a 0.2 per cent contraction this year.

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“Against this backdrop, the OBR forecast for public sector net borrowing to fall this year by around £10bn looks under threat. Hence, the government is between a rock and a hard place: economic growth is minimal and the deficit appears to be rising again. The IMF’s remarks this week mean the debate around easing the pace of fiscal consolidation is likely to gather momentum in the lead up to the Autumn Statement.”

This article first appeared in economia.