It’s now exactly a year since David Cameron and Nick Clegg stood together in the rose garden of No 10 and promised a “new politics”. So, to mark the first anniversary of the coalition, I’ve put together some charts and graphs on the stats that define the government’s year in office. Below are the numbers and a commentary on them.
History teaches us that numbers and statistics can come to define a government. Think of how the figure of three million unemployed became a shorthand for the failures of Thatcherism, or of how “Old Labour” is now remembered for marginal rates of tax as high as 98 per cent.
The current coalition will be remembered as the government that increased VAT to a record level of 20 per cent and that raised the cap on university tuition fees to £9,000. Ministers pledged that universities would charge the full amount in “exceptional circumstances” only, but of the 91 universities that have publicly announced their plans, 62 intend to charge the maximum fee.
University applications increased by just 2.1 per cent this year, compared to 15.3 per cent last year, a sign that young people are being deterred from applying even before higher fees kick in.
Nick Clegg, the man whose political credibility was destroyed by the decision to triple fees, has few reasons to be cheerful after the first year of the coalition. His approval rating has fallen from a post-debate high of +53 to -18 and support for the Liberal Democrats has plummeted from 21 per cent in May 2010 to just 8 per cent today. Chris Huhne’s memorable prediction that support for his party would fall to 5 per cent may yet come true.
The Conservatives have fared significantly better. Support for David Cameron’s party has fallen from a peak of 44 per cent in July 2010 to 36 per cent today but this remains the same level of support as achieved at the last general election. Cameron’s own approval rating has fallen from a peak of +31 in July 2010 to -3, a poor, but not terrible, figure.
The economy continues to be plagued by a toxic combination of sluggish growth, high inflation and high unemployment. The jobless total (7.8 per cent) is slightly lower than it was a year ago, but youth unemployment, which now stands at 963,000 (20.4 per cent), has continued to rise. Private-sector employment has increased by 428,000 but public-sector workers are being laid off faster than expected, with 132,000 jobs lost over the past 12 months.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that there will be 310,000 fewer public-sector jobs by 2014-2015, a figure that now looks like an underestimate. Meanwhile, growth of just 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2011, which merely recovered the lost output from the previous quarter, means that the economy has not grown in the past six months.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development now expects Britain to grow at a slower pace than every other G7 economy with the exception of crisis-hit Japan. George Osborne may avoid a double-dip recession but an anaemic recovery now looks inevitable.
Party support and pproval ratings
Source: YouGov; Ipsos MORI
Sources: ONS; OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2011
Sources: ONS Labour Force Survey; OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2011; CEBR
Sources: Ucas; Times Higher Education Supplement