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3 October 2010updated 04 Oct 2023 9:48am

The “bounceless“ conference, part II

Optimism for Miliband, maybe Cameron too.

By Jon Bernstein

Yesterday I floated the idea that this could become the first party conference season in recent memory where none of the three party leaders enjoy a poll boost as a result of their week in the media glare.

While conceding that we haven’t seen “the drastic shifts in support that we’ve got used to during conference seasons in previous years”, Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report thinks I may have been a little pessimistic. He writes:

While there was no great jump in Lib Dem support in YouGov’s daily polling the Lib Dems did rise from their usual 12% or so to a brief peak of 15%, their highest for a month. While there was no obvious jump for Labour after Ed Miliband’s speech, their conference as a whole has improved their ratings – this week we’ve seen three polls showing Labour ahead and their first 40+% ratings for years, that’s not to be sniffed at.

True, there aren’t any of the drastic shifts in support that we’ve got used to during conference seasons in previous years (take, for example, 2008 when Labour’s conference temporarily gained them 7 points, or the massive shift in support during the 2007 Conservative conference), but the normal pattern is there. Now let’s roll on the Conservative conference and see what it produces for them.

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Today’s YouGov weekly poll for The Sunday Times has Labour on 41 per cent, the Conservatives on 39 per cent and the Lib Dems on 11 per cent.Yesterday’s ComRes / Independent poll, by way of contrast, had the Tories on 39 per cent, Labour on 36 per cent and the Lib Dems on 15 per cent.

Sunny Hundal, over on Liberal Conspiracy, asks:

Is it post-conference bounce? Who knows, though it’s unlikely as most of the coverage then revolved around David Miliband’s deliberations.

UPDATE: Just to add to the sense of flux, a BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday has the Conservatives on 41 per cent, Labour on 37 per cent and the Lib Dems on 13 per cent. If there’s a post-conference bounce here, I’m struggling to see it.

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