View all newsletters
Sign up to our newsletters

Support 110 years of independent journalism.

  1. Business
  2. Economics
12 March 2013updated 17 Jan 2024 7:40am

Focus on a “triple dip” misses the point

The economy is stuck and without a change in government policy the slump is set to continue, writes the TUC's Duncan Weldon.

By Duncan Weldon

Will the UK economy experience a triple dip recession?

The simple answer is that I simply don’t know. The more honest answer is that I don’t really think it matters. Today’s industrial production figures certainly point towards one, but last week’s PMI surveys’ suggest growth of 0.1 per cent.

In reality whilst a triple dip would no doubt generate many headlines, the difference between a Q1 GDP figure -0.1 per cent and one of +0.1 per cent is pretty unimportant, especially as the figures are subject to revision for years afterwards.

The bigger picture is that the UK’s recent economic performance has been disastrous.

Whether compared to the original forecasts (on which fiscal policy is still based), to our international peers or to our own historical experience, this has been an extremely weak recovery.

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

The much-hoped for rebalancing has simply not occurred. Today’s industrial production statistics tell us that industrial output is now back to 1992 levels. Business investment grew by 0.4% last year against an original forecast of 10.0%.  Net trade subtracted from growth.

The government expected growth of 2.3% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012, with two thirds of that coming from an increase in business investment and an improvement in net trade. Instead we got neither the growth nor the rebalancing.

The result has been missed fiscal targets and a downgraded credit rating.

Real wage falls, coupled with changes to the tax credit and social security system, have given us the longest squeeze in living standards in modern British economic history.

The labour market is hailed as ‘good news; but as important research from the Resolution Foundation today demonstrates, we still face a job gap of 850,000 to get back to pre-crisis levels of employment.

Productivity growth has collapsed, risking a longer term impact on living standards and growth.

And despite all of the government’s rhetoric on the UK being in a ‘global race’ – whether you measure it by growth, exports, manufacturing output or living standards, the UK is falling behind the other leading economies.

Against a backdrop of terrible growth, no rebalancing, a living standards squeeze, a weak labour market and productivity falls, the difference between a small  contraction in Q1 and some small growth in Q1 doesn’t seem very important.

The economy is stuck and without a change in government policy the slump is set to continue.

This piece was originally published at ToUChstone, and is republished here with permission.

Content from our partners
Labour's health reforms can put patients first
Data science can help developers design future-proof infrastructure
How to tackle the UK's plastic pollution problem – with Coca-Cola

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU