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16 July 2012

The IMF spoils the coalition’s relaunch

Forecast for UK growth is downgraded by more than any other G8 country.

By George Eaton

David Cameron is increasingly keen to draw attention to what he calls the coalition’s “achievements”: cutting the deficit by a quarter, capping benefits, creating hundreds of new academies, reforming public sector pensions and so on. We learned today that the government will shortly publish a “mid-term review” highlighting its “successes”. But the IMF has just provided a reminder of one of the coalition’s failures: its inability to generate growth.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the Fund downgraded its forecast for UK growth by more than any other G8 country. It now expects the UK to grow by just 0.2 per cent this year (down from a previous forecast of 0.8 per cent) and by 1.4 per cent next year (down from 2 per cent). The Q2 GDP figures, which will be released this month, will almost certainly show that we remain in recession, a further blow to George Osborne’s diminished authority.

But in his defence, Osborne will point out that the IMF has again endorsed his deficit reduction plan. It states that the UK has “appropriately maintained its commitments to balance the structural current budget within five years and to put net debt on a declining path, with additional consolidation in store in 2015–17.” Despite previously stating that the UK should enact fiscal stimulus (through “temporary tax cuts and greater infrastructure spending”)  if activity continues to “undershoot current expectations” (which it has), the IMF appears to have fallen prey to another bout of fiscal hawkery.

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