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10 May 2011

The coalition will not last five years, say voters

56 per cent of voters do not believe the coalition government will last until 2015.

By George Eaton

Ahead of the first anniversary of the coalition tomorrow, this week’s New Statesman/ICD poll asked voters if they think the government will last until 2015. As the chart below shows, most do not believe the coalition will serve a full term.

Fifty-six per cent of voters expect the coalition to collapse before 2015 and only 22 per cent expect it to go the distance. Voters aged 18-24 are the most sceptical – just 13 per cent believe the coalition will last until 2015, against the overall average of 22 per cent.

The Fixed-Term Parliaments Bill, which reaches report stage in the House of Lords today, would set the date of the next general election at 7 May 2015. An election could be triggered before the end of the five-year term if a motion of no confidence is passed and no alternative government is found, or if a motion for an early election is agreed by at least two-thirds (a “supermajority”) of MPs.

Incidentally, despite the continuing speculation over an early election, the Tories have little interest in going to the country before 2013, when the boundary review is due to conclude.

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Data supplied by the ICD Research Omnibus, powered by the IDFactor, based on a sample of 1,000 responses.