After nearly 500 days of brutal war, a ceasefire in Gaza has been signed. Seemingly endless negotiations between Israel and Hamas – brokered by Qatar, the US and Egypt – ended in a deal on 15 January, with a multi-phase plan due to begin on 19 January. Though the deal is still subject to agreement by Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet, who will vote on it today (17 January), once enacted the first 42-day phase would see Israel halt fighting in the Strip, allowing displaced Palestinians to return to what is left of their homes and the delivery of humanitarian aid. Hamas will also free 33 of the 98 remaining hostages captured during its 7 October attack; in exchange, Israel will release dozens of Palestinian prisoners it holds.
Understandably, news of the ceasefire was met with celebrations on the streets of Gaza. Less coherently, it also prompted a triumphant press conference from Joe Biden, who touted the deal as a final foreign policy victory for his administration. For 15 months now, critics have branded Biden “Genocide Joe” for what they say has been either a refusal or failure to rein in Israel’s war in Gaza; the US has vetoed UN Security Council ceasefire resolutions five times since the war began and Netanyahu repeatedly crossed each of Biden’s supposed red lines. The outgoing president is now clearly intent on cementing a positive legacy. Noting that the current ceasefire deal has the “precise contours” of the plan he had put forward in May 2024, Biden declared in his press conference: “My diplomacy never ceased in [its] efforts to get this done.”
He did not detail why, if this exact deal had been proposed eight months ago, it was only being implemented now. Yet Donald Trump, quick to take his own victory lap, had previously taken to social media to provide his own context. Posting on his Truth Social platform, the incoming president wrote: “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signalled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.”
For once, this doesn’t appear to be a simple Trumpian bluster. Biden officials have admitted that the current administration and the incoming one have worked closely together in negotiations in recent days, though they have denied that Trump and his team deserve the credit for pushing the deal through. Yet multiple sources suggest otherwise. Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, travelled to Israel for a “tense” solo meeting with Netanyahu on Saturday 11 January, which unnamed Arab officials told the Times of Israel did “more to sway the premier in a single sit-down than outgoing President Joe Biden did all year”. After the deal was announced, an unnamed diplomat echoed that sentiment, telling the Washington Post that Trump’s involvement marked “the first time there has been real pressure on the Israeli side to accept a deal”.
Netanyahu, however, has been far less celebratory about the ceasefire agreement. The day after Trump and Biden made their announcements, Netanyahu released a statement saying that his Cabinet would not immediately convene to vote on the ceasefire because Hamas had created an unspecified “last-minute crisis that prevents a settlement”. Many officials and analysts believe that the delay was merely an attempt by Netanyahu to placate his far-right coalition partners – who are against a ceasefire and prop up his administration. (A majority of Israelis support the hostage deal.) The White House is apparently “confident” the ceasefire will still be implemented on 19 January – just in time for Trump’s inauguration.
Yet if responsibility for the ceasefire lies with Trump, what comes next does too. Palestinians, Israelis, and the wider region might be desperate for a permanent end to the war, but without sustained focus and pressure from the White House, many fear that the ceasefire could collapse within weeks. There are many fault lines in the fragile deal, not least the question of who controls Gaza. Despite the ferocity of the past 15 months of war, Hamas has not been eliminated and no alternative authority has been seriously discussed. Netanyahu, desperate to hold onto power, could easily find reason to resume fighting; reports suggest that he has already promised as much to his far-right ministers. Despite the celebrations and self-congratulations, the war still seems far from over.
[See also: Gaza’s uneasy peace]
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