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Our latest projections for the next election show that Labour is on course for a majority of around 40 seats, despite its much maligned leadership.
This week’s speech by Ed Miliband, nor any of his annual swings between brilliance (2012), competence (2013, 2010) and relative disaster (2011, 2014), are the major stories of the past four years.
They have not driven the polls. Two other events have: the collapse of Britain’s third party (the Lib Dems) and the rise of its fourth (Ukip).
The fate of the major two parties and their leaders has been determined by these shifts and little else. Scoops, crises and speeches may have moved polls in the short-run, but the underlying attitudes to the main parties are little changed from 2010. This is the story so far: