As she conceded defeat in a historic election to the Senedd, Eluned Morgan told gathered attendees at her count in West Wales that the “people of Wales have rejected Welsh Labour”. It has been an extraordinarily difficult day for Morgan, who has been First Minister of Wales since 2024. She lost her seat, Ceredigion Penfro, after it was won by three candidates for Plaid Cymru, two for Reform and one from the Conservatives.
Morgan looked stoic as she gave her valedictory speech. “I am taking responsibility,” she said, “and I am resigning”. She wished Plaid Cymru – which at the time of writing looks likely to form the next Welsh government – “the very best” as they “lead this great nation”.
Though unprecedented, Morgan’s loss was not surprising. In fact, according to Welsh Labour MPs, it had been on the cards for weeks. Morgan herself even made a TikTok in the run up to the campaign stating there was a “danger” she could be defeated by Reform. Welsh Labour more widely has been languishing in the polls for more than a year. Current projections suggest it will win eight to ten of the Senedd’s 96 seats. Despite 27 years in power in the Welsh Senedd, holding onto Cardiff Bay was always going to be a challenge for Welsh Labour, given the state of the economy, the rise of Reform and a boost for Plaid Cymru after the Caerphilly by-election last year.
According to sources on the ground, dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer came up on the doorstep. Yet unlike some of her Labour colleagues, Morgan refrained from calling on the Prime Minister to resign. Instead, she urged the party to change course and return to working-class values. “The wind in Wales has shifted from a breeze to a gale. We know in the Labour Party that we have tough days ahead. But we are confident that the sun will shine again,” she said.
Labour figures are looking onto this historic loss in what was once one of the party’s heartlands with sorrow. A senior Labour figure told me today has been coming “for years – decades – of rising resentment” arising particularly from “Thatcher’s devastation” which has not been “properly combatted” in the years since. They were critical of the government’s welfare reforms and expressed deep disappointment that Morgan had lost her seat. In a statement, Starmer thanked Morgan for her years of service and described her as a “formidable First Minister and tireless champion for Wales”.
What happens next? The party’s dominance in Wales lies in tatters. Welsh Labour will need to wait until the dust has settled to see who – among their diminished group in the Senedd – is willing to take up the mantle in Morgan’s stead. One thing is clear, though. As the polls predicted, a century of Labour dominance in Wales has now been brought to an end.
[Further reading: Has Kemi Badenoch lost touch with reality?]
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