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11 February 2021updated 26 Jul 2021 5:55am

Why support for Scottish independence is more fragile than it appears

The Yes movement’s increasingly fractious divisions threaten to alienate the moderate voters the SNP needs to win over. 

By Chris Deerin

Not so long ago Mike Russell, the SNP president and constitution minister, privately boasted to the Australian high commissioner that a second Scottish independence referendum would be held in late 2021. It’s easy to imagine Russell, the kind of character one imagines has a fireplace portrait of himself reclining in leopard skin, luxuriating in the role of global player, mere months away from rocking the world.

Let’s presume, charitably, that he simply got carried away – let Mike be Mike. When details of the conversation emerged last month following a freedom of information request, they were met with bemusement. The SNP is certainly on course to win an overall majority in May’s Holyrood election, with a manifesto pledge to hold another referendum, but no one – up to and including Nicola Sturgeon – expects or believes a vote on separation will be held this year.

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