Set-piece debates don’t tend to move many votes in elections. Fewer than one in ten of the electorate who tuned into the supposedly pivotal Nixon-Kennedy showdown in 1960 changed their mind after it. But what debates can do is fire up – or depress – a candidate’s base. In the aftermath of the Harris-Trump head to head last night, this feels the most likely consequence once again – no matter how many pundits are declaring it a decisive victory for the Kamala Harris campaign.
Harris’s first clever bit of politics was targeting Polish-Americans by alluding to the threat Russia posed to their homeland. Their votes in the contentious rust belt region of post-industrial America need to be won over. Meanwhile, going hard on access to abortion – a cornerstone of her platform – might rally the disgruntled left. Harris too was right to point out the endorsements she had received from several Republicans. This broad-tent performance will likely serve her well. Though she risks losing a tranche of angry, logged-on 18- to 34-year-olds over Israel.
Meanwhile Donald Trump executed his most important job well: to nail Harris on jobs, inflation and the economy. Painting Harris as the continuity candidate of the unpopular Joe Biden administration could be very damaging to her. The economy is the one metric that puts Trump comfortably ahead. And the economy is among the primary issues that motivates the electorate.
But his wacky performance could damage his otherwise successfully delivered central message. The former president oscillated wildly between strange claims about immigrants eating cats and the dead-horse slogan about the previous election being rigged. This may all be radicalising (in the right direction) for his core base. But it may alienate those less convinced. Not all Republicans, for example, believe the election was rigged. By going in heavy on that narrative he could shed important undecided voters.
However, the debate isn’t a knockout round. The biggest risk to Harris is that voters find it difficult to separate her – no matter how hard she tries – from Biden and his failure to cut through on the economy. A not insignificant proportion of the electorate expect conditions to get better under Trump. I break down how the polls look on these questions in my election forecast model here.
I suspect this debate will see enthusiasm for Trump drift, and for Harris rise. It may not be enough to totally change the narrative, but Harris has recouped some recently lost momentum.
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