Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Politics
25 March 2021

Who would win a general election held today?

Who’s ahead in the polls? How popular are the party leaders?

By Ben Walker

Who’s ahead in the polls?


How popular are the party leaders?

Boris Johnson’s Conservatives won their largest majority since 1987 at the 2019 general election (80 seats), humbling Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour and triggering a leadership election that resulted in victory for Keir Starmer.

Starmer is tasked with leading his party back to power after 11 years in opposition and in 2020 Labour reduced the Tories’ poll lead from 15 points in January to just one point in December. But a successful vaccine roll-out and Rishi Sunak’s well-received Budget has led to a Conservative recovery. This May’s local elections will be a defining test of Starmer’s leadership, but how might the rest of 2021, and indeed the rest of the parliament, unfold?

Sign up for The New Statesman’s newsletters Tick the boxes of the newsletters you would like to receive. Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The best of the New Statesman, delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. A handy, three-minute glance at the week ahead in companies, markets, regulation and investment, landing in your inbox every Monday morning. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A weekly dig into the New Statesman’s archive of over 100 years of stellar and influential journalism, sent each Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
I consent to New Statesman Media Group collecting my details provided via this form in accordance with the Privacy Policy

Welcome to our essential guide to the state of British public opinion. From voting intentions and leadership preferences to support for Scottish independence, all the key trackers can be found here.


Who do voters want as the next prime minister?

A weighted average of polls that pose the (or a similar) question: "Who would you prefer as prime minister?"

Content from our partners
Helping children be safer, smarter, happier internet explorers
Power to the people
How to power the electric vehicle revolution

Will Scotland vote for independence?

A weighted average of the latest voting intentions that pose the question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

See more: forecasting the Holyrood elections