Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Politics
25 March 2021

Who would win a general election held today?

Who’s ahead in the polls? How popular are the party leaders?

By Ben Walker

Who’s ahead in the polls?


How popular are the party leaders?

Boris Johnson’s Conservatives won their largest majority since 1987 at the 2019 general election (80 seats), humbling Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour and triggering a leadership election that resulted in victory for Keir Starmer.

Starmer is tasked with leading his party back to power after 11 years in opposition and in 2020 Labour reduced the Tories’ poll lead from 15 points in January to just one point in December. But a successful vaccine roll-out and Rishi Sunak’s well-received Budget has led to a Conservative recovery. This May’s local elections will be a defining test of Starmer’s leadership, but how might the rest of 2021, and indeed the rest of the parliament, unfold?

Select and enter your email address Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. A weekly newsletter helping you fit together the pieces of the global economic slowdown. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The best of the New Statesman, delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section and the NS archive, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
I consent to New Statesman Media Group collecting my details provided via this form in accordance with the Privacy Policy
THANK YOU

Welcome to our essential guide to the state of British public opinion. From voting intentions and leadership preferences to support for Scottish independence, all the key trackers can be found here.

Content from our partners
How industry is key for net zero
How to ensure net zero brings good growth and green jobs
Flooding is a major risk for our homes

Who do voters want as the next prime minister?

A weighted average of polls that pose the (or a similar) question: "Who would you prefer as prime minister?"


Will Scotland vote for independence?

A weighted average of the latest voting intentions that pose the question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

See more: forecasting the Holyrood elections