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26 February 2010

Tory lead falls to just five points

The lowest Tory lead since December 2008.

By George Eaton

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1267144836243

Latest poll (Daily Telegraph/Ipsos-MORI): Labour 33 seats short of a majority

There’s even more bad news for David Cameron tonight. A new Ipsos-MORI poll, published in tomorrow’s Telegraph, puts the Tories just five points ahead of Labour — the party’s lowest lead since December 2008.

The headline figures are: Conservative 37 per cent (-3), Labour 32 per cent (no change), Liberal Democrats 19 per cent (+3). Assuming a uniform national swing, that would leave Labour as the largest single party in a hung parliament, 33 seats short of an overall majority. Even if you accept (as I do) that the Tories are likely to perform disproportionately well in the marginals, the latest figures still put us on course for the first hung parliament since 1974.

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We can expect the backbench mutterings over Cameron’s strategy to grow stronger after tonight’s poll. The onus is now on the Tory leader to produce something special in Brighton this weekend.

New Statesman poll of polls

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1267145161640

Conservatives 34 seats short of a majority.


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