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26 February 2010

Tory lead falls to just five points

The lowest Tory lead since December 2008.

By George Eaton

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1267144836243

Latest poll (Daily Telegraph/Ipsos-MORI): Labour 33 seats short of a majority

There’s even more bad news for David Cameron tonight. A new Ipsos-MORI poll, published in tomorrow’s Telegraph, puts the Tories just five points ahead of Labour — the party’s lowest lead since December 2008.

The headline figures are: Conservative 37 per cent (-3), Labour 32 per cent (no change), Liberal Democrats 19 per cent (+3). Assuming a uniform national swing, that would leave Labour as the largest single party in a hung parliament, 33 seats short of an overall majority. Even if you accept (as I do) that the Tories are likely to perform disproportionately well in the marginals, the latest figures still put us on course for the first hung parliament since 1974.

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We can expect the backbench mutterings over Cameron’s strategy to grow stronger after tonight’s poll. The onus is now on the Tory leader to produce something special in Brighton this weekend.

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New Statesman poll of polls

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1267145161640

Conservatives 34 seats short of a majority.


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