Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Spotlight
  2. Elections
26 February 2010

Tory lead falls to just five points

The lowest Tory lead since December 2008.

By George Eaton

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1267144836243

Latest poll (Daily Telegraph/Ipsos-MORI): Labour 33 seats short of a majority

There’s even more bad news for David Cameron tonight. A new Ipsos-MORI poll, published in tomorrow’s Telegraph, puts the Tories just five points ahead of Labour — the party’s lowest lead since December 2008.

The headline figures are: Conservative 37 per cent (-3), Labour 32 per cent (no change), Liberal Democrats 19 per cent (+3). Assuming a uniform national swing, that would leave Labour as the largest single party in a hung parliament, 33 seats short of an overall majority. Even if you accept (as I do) that the Tories are likely to perform disproportionately well in the marginals, the latest figures still put us on course for the first hung parliament since 1974.

Sign up for The New Statesman’s newsletters Tick the boxes of the newsletters you would like to receive. Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. The best of the New Statesman, delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. A handy, three-minute glance at the week ahead in companies, markets, regulation and investment, landing in your inbox every Monday morning. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A weekly dig into the New Statesman’s archive of over 100 years of stellar and influential journalism, sent each Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
I consent to New Statesman Media Group collecting my details provided via this form in accordance with the Privacy Policy

We can expect the backbench mutterings over Cameron’s strategy to grow stronger after tonight’s poll. The onus is now on the Tory leader to produce something special in Brighton this weekend.

New Statesman poll of polls

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1267145161640

Conservatives 34 seats short of a majority.

 

Follow the New Statesman team on Twitter.