Keir Starmer’s national dominance belies the instability plaguing Welsh Labour. Vaughan Gething could be out as First Minister within a year of his election. His position has been fragile since he lost a vote of confidence 78 days after taking the job in March. Even though he dismissed the defeat as a gimmick and refused to resign, the vote exposed the divisions within his party. It revealed a leader who had failed to bring his members of the Senedd (MS) together – and who will soon face the consequences.
Politics is a numbers game. Fundamentally, Gething’s Labour does not have a majority in the Senedd. His scandal-strewn leadership has pushed away Plaid Cymru, whose votes Labour needs to govern, as well as the Lib Dems’ sole MS, Jane Dodds. The then shadow cabinet member Emily Thornberry might have said at the time that the vote of confidence was insignificant, which had the side effect of dismissing the Senedd as an institution. But the fact remains that Gething could not get his entire party to vote for him.
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