While all the attention – and pol-col inches – is on the many hurdles between Andy Burnham and standing in a future Gorton and Denton by-election, less is said of a more germane question – would he even win it? Last time I checked, in September last year, the data put Labour behind Reform by a decent margin.
Today, the figures are just as drab. The Britain Predicts forecast for Gorton and Denton currently suggests a gain for Reform, with Labour six points behind and the Greens on a hefty 22 per cent of the vote share. Factor for tactical voting – which is increasingly common in every constituency – and Labour comes within two points. The Greens, harder to squeeze than other progressive voters, are reduced in a hypothetical Labour vs Reform scenario by just two points, from 22 per cent to 20.
Gorton and Denton requires as big a swing for Reform to win as it had in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last May. If it can happen in Runcorn, it can certainly happen in Denton.
Runcorn and Helsby also showed us that while Lib Dem and Conservative voters are remarkably easy to squeeze in a Lab vs Ref fight, Green voters are not. In Lab vs Ref fights, of the main parties, Green votes are the most stubborn.
The Britain Predicts model assumes no positive or negative effects from a candidate. It would be foolish to project unless there’s data to hand. Luckily with Burnham there is some, so, let’s work it out.
The Labour brand is our default candidate in the election model posted above. And Burnham is our special candidate. The mayor of Manchester is more liked by 2024 Reform voters than the Labour brand, both at the time of last general election and today. Compared with last year, this is by a factor of 16 points. Compared with today, it’s 22 points. In Gorton and Denton, that’s effectively 2-3 points of the Reform 2024 vote, which likes Burnham but not Labour. In other words, 2-3 points that could be open to voting for Burnham today, but not Labour then or now.
The important thing to note is these are national numbers. They hide local nuances. And there may be an exaggerated feeling of opinion in Greater Manchester, particularly given that in mayoral contests he polls much better in Conservative wards than a typical Labour candidate would in a council election.
Once you add the national numbers up for other parties, you can find a Burnham candidacy picking up 5-7 percentage points from 2024’s active voters. Whereas Gwynne got 51 per cent last year, Burnham may have got upwards of 58 per cent. And that’s before you consider those voters Burnham would have brought back out, or indeed turned away.
In Gorton and Denton, the impacts (albeit on national numbers) would be significant. If an election was held now, factoring for Burnham as the candidate alone would draw Labour level with Reform. There would be a small squeeze on the Greens. Factor for tactical voting, and Labour would emerge four points clear of Reform, at 36 per cent to 32 per cent. The Greens, still in a strong position, would poll 18 per cent.
Brand Burnham could save Labour in this Greater Manchester by-election. There’s no better place for it than his own backyard. (It’s better than Norwich, at least.) But the constituency is home to its fair share of voters who are prone to more marginal candidates. The seat is diverse and more deprived than the average. A history of voting Labour counts for little these days. The large Green vote here is not borne from nothing. If Labour wants to see off Reform, it needs to inspire the left without inciting the right.
[Further reading: Andy Burnham’s plan for London]
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