Back in September 2023, we put Nigel Farage top of our inaugural Right Power List. To some, the choice seemed like a strange one. The Conservatives were still in government and Farage was then not even an MP. But, we maintained, the Reform leader’s influence across a range of areas – Brexit, immigration, net zero – meant that while “Sunak is in office, it is Farage who is in power”.
That verdict aged well. Farage has confirmed his status as the unofficial leader of the British right (and became an MP in Clacton). Reform’s support has grown since the general election – it now regularly exceeds 20 per cent (up from 14 per cent in July). Farage’s speech at last week’s Spectator parliamentary awards, in which he declared that a “political revolution” was approaching, has prompted more debate than anything Kemi Badenoch has said since becoming Conservative leader.
The question being asked is not only whether Reform could supplant the Tories as the opposition – but whether it could displace Labour. Influential strategists say they can now envisage circumstances in which Farage – perhaps aided by Elon Musk’s largesse – becomes prime minister in 2029. Tony Blair used to talk of New Labour “owning the future”. Does Farage?
If you were to design an ideal political landscape for Reform, it would look something like today’s. The UK has an unpopular government and an unpopular opposition. Concern over immigration – Reform’s issue of choice – is rising. And we live in an age of voter volatility in which the public is less tribal than ever.
Though Reform has just five MPs, it finished second in 98 seats at the election (89 of which are Labour-held). On the morning of 5 July, as Keir Starmer celebrated his landslide victory, his MPs spoke of their fear that Reform would be the beneficiary of midterm blues. That fear is now greater than ever. First past the post is only a hindrance to insurgent parties until it is suddenly not (recall how the SNP went from six MPs to 56 in 2015).
Reform, which says its membership has reached 105,000 (not far off the Tories’ 132,000), aims to make dramatic gains in next year’s local elections and the 2026 Welsh and Scottish contests. Post-industrial Wales, which voted for Brexit, is propitious territory for Farage – one recent Senedd poll put Reform in second place on 23 per cent. In Scotland, as the New Statesman’s Chris Deerin has written, the party appeals to voters yearning for something more radical than a Scottish Labour restoration.
But while Farage’s strengths shouldn’t be ignored, nor should his weaknesses. Despite his populist reputation, he is not a popular politician. He has a net approval rating of -20 – with 48 per cent of voters holding an unfavourable view of him. His political association with Donald Trump is more of a hindrance than a help. While a majority of Reform voters (59 per cent) hold a favourable opinion of the president-elect, just 25 per cent of Britons do. Farage is the voice of a people rather than the people.
Reform also faces a version of the same dilemma that has afflicted recent Conservative leaders. It is caught between attracting left-leaning Labour voters in the north while also appealing to free-market Tories in the south.
In recent years, Farage has adopted more economically populist rhetoric. “In some ways, my economic narrative against the global corporatists is quite left wing,” he told the New Statesman this year. “Look, I fought the banks last year. I’m not for big global capital. Quite the opposite.” But Labour will never grow tired of reminding voters that Farage has called for the replacement of the NHS with an insurance-based model.
Reform cannot truly fill the gap that has long existed in British politics: for a party that is both economically interventionist and socially conservative. For now, Labour can remain grateful that the right-wing vote is split across two parties (or even three if you count natural Tories voting Liberal Democrat). The absence of a comparable split in the left vote is one of the advantages that Starmer retains. The other is more than four years to deliver.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here.
Content from our partners
Related
