Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) has limped through nearly four years of government. Having ousted Angela Merkel’s Union (an alliance between the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU)) in 2021, things could have – should have – gone better for the SPD.
A grand reset, a new era, strong leadership? It was just a dream. The coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP, Germany’s free-market Lib Dems) fell in December. And following a vote of no confidence, Chancellor Scholz had to call a snap election.
There is trouble brewing for the incumbents, particularly those of the liberal centre. Fresh forecasts from YouGov reveal just how bad things are looking for the Social Democrats and the Free Democratic Party, with both the hard right and the right on course to win big.
The Union looks likely to return to the Bundestag in February as the leading party, with over one third of the seats. This compares to 27 per cent of the seats in 2021. So an increase, but not an overwhelming one.
The SPD looks likely to fall from 28 per cent of the seats to 18 per cent – a ten-point fall in representation. Its vote, too, looks likely to amount to around only 16 per cent.
And not only that, but the SPD cannot even be sure of coming second this election. YouGov suspects it may end up beaten by the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is on course to take almost a quarter (23 per cent) of the seats in the Bundestag, with a not insubstantial fifth of the vote.
The FDP, meanwhile, looks at risk of crashing out of parliament altogether. It is on course to pick up 4.5 per cent of the vote. That does not guarantee it seats on the proportional top-up system the Bundestag uses. If this bears out, it will mean the FDP will go from 11 per cent of the Bundestag, to zero per cent.
Germany’s Left Party, which has roots in the old East German government, also looks likely to crash out of the Bundestag for the first time. Reliant on votes now gobbled up by both the hard right and an insurgent anti-immigrant party (the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW), its future is uncertain. Right now the Left Party is on course to pick up just 2.9 per cent of the national vote compared with the BSW’s 6 per cent.
In working-class communities across much of Europe the hard right is succeeding, and the social democrats are increasingly irrelevant.
The result of this election, however, might mean little change. The Greens look likely to emerge unscathed, with little shift in support. The next German government will almost certainly have a CDU/CSU chancellor. But governing with whom? The SPD and Union could make up more than half the Bundestag, so another grand coalition looks likely.
But after an election in which anti-immigrant and radical parties could make up around 30 per cent of the legislature, what would “no change from us” say to the voters?
[See also: How could Germany’s election shape the EU?]
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