Reform have only won 12 of the last 200-and-something council by-elections held since the general election. Five per cent of them, to be exact. And yet the nationwide opinion polls suggest they’re winning upwards of a fifth voters if an election were held tomorrow.
So the polls are wrong, right?
Wrong! Council elections – even taken in the aggregate across the country – are not representative samples of the electorate (those who vote in council elections tend to be more engaged, for example). In my model, Britain Elects, Reform also leads Labour by 26 per cent to 25 per cent. The Conservatives meanwhile languish in third on 22 per cent.
All of this, naturally, is within the margin of error. It is conceivable right now that Labour could still have a poll lead, just as the Conservatives can. And it is also conceivable that Reform’s single point lead could actually be three points, or four.
So divided are the polls that to talk of “leads” when it’s over one or two points is somewhat moot – and even more so when any given party is only holding a quarter of the electorate. The country is operating proportionally all the while existing in a system of first past the post.
Which brings us to our next data point. What would happen if these shares were borne out in seats?
The central numbers from Britain Predicts are as follows: Labour to still emerge as the largest party in parliament, with 274; Conservatives in second with 166; Reform meanwhile would win just 71; the Lib Dems would also win 71; the Greens would score 4; whereas independent candidates would come in at 17.
But I caution. This model suggests 127 seats where the winning party would come in on a majority of 3 points or less. It is unusual that more than 100 of our 650 seats would come down to the wire. Quite frankly, the parliamentary arithmetic on these national poll numbers is not worth taking seriously. Not until we can gauge some clear geographical breakdowns.
But here’s what you need to know. The council by-elections broadly vindicate the national polls. And the national polls put Reform on 26 per cent to Labour’s 24. That’s the state of the nation in February 2025. And there’s very little reason to doubt it.
[See more: How will Britain defend itself?]
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