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Election 2017: 30 MPs at risk from a Lib Dem surge

The Lib Dems are hopeful of winning "dozens" of seats on June 8. Here's a list of the 30 most vulnerable if the party surges.

Buoyed by the 48 per cent's Brexit backlash, Labour's disarray, a famous win in Richmond Park and a string of council by-election victories, the Liberal Democrats say they are on course to make "dozens" of gains come June 8. 

Its targets can for the most part be divided into two broad categories: the first a disparate clutch of seats held before their 2015 collapse, the second a handful of new targets whose pro-Remain electorates are at odds with Brexiteer MPs.

The party is particularly hopeful of recouping the losses it made to the Tories in its erstwhile south west heartlands at the last election. As George revealed last month, internal polling reveals most of those seats could be vulnerable to a Lib Dem surge - as several Labour-held seats in England and Wales that broke heavily for remain in last year's referendum. 

EU referendum results were, for the most part, released by local authority rather than Westminster constituency – the totals in this list, where not officially available, are taken from political scientist Dr Chris Hanretty’s estimates, of which a full table is available here.

Labour-held:

Daniel Zeichner – Cambridge
Majority: 599 (1.2 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 69 per cent Remain

Julie Cooper – Burnley
Majority: 3,244 (8.1 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 40 per cent Remain

Neil Coyle – Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Majority: 4,489 (8.7 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 68 per cent Remain

Thangam Debbonaire – Bristol West
Majority: 5,673 (8.9 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 80 per cent Remain

Jo Stevens – Cardiff Central
Majority: 4,981 (12.9 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 62 per cent Remain

Jess Phillips – Birmingham Yardley
Majority: 6,595 (16 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 36 per cent Remain

Kate Hoey - Vauxhall 
Majority: 12708 (25.6 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 81 per cent Remain

Conservative-held:

Maria Caulfield – Lewes
Majority: 1083 (2.1 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 50 per cent Remain

Luke Hall – Thornbury and Yate
Majority: 1459 (3.1 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 44 per cent Remain

James Berry – Kingston and Surbiton
Majority: 2834 (4.8 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 60 per cent Remain

Marcus Fysh – Yeovil
Majority: 5293 (5.3 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 39 per cent Remain

Derek Thomas – St Ives
Majority: 2469 (5.1 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 46 per cent Remain

Kevin Foster – Torbay
Majority: 3286 (6.8 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 40 per cent Remain

Paul Scully – Sutton and Cheam
Majority: 3921 (7.8 per cent)
EU referendum vote:  49 per cent Remain

Ben Howlett – Bath
Majority: 3833 (8.1 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 66 per cent Remain

Will Quince – Colchester
Majority: 5575 (11.5 per cent)
EU referendum vote:  49 per cent Remain

Mary Robinson – Cheadle
Majority: 6453 (12.1 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 58 per cent Remain

 Alex Chalk - Cheltenham
Majority: 6516 (12.1 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 57 per cent Remain

Peter Heaton-Jones - North Devon
Majority: 6936 (13.3 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 43 per cent Remain

James Heappey – Wells
Majority: 7585 (13.3 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 47 per cent Remain

Scott Mann - North Cornwall
Majority: 6621 (13.7 per cent)
EU referendum vote:  40 per cent Remain

Anne-Marie Trevelyan – Berwick-upon-Tweed
Majority: 4914 (12.2 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 45 per cent Remain
 

Flick Drummond - Portsmouth South
Majority: 5241 (12.5 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 48 per cent Remain

Nicola Blackwood – Oxford West and Abingdon
Majority: 9,582 (16.7 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 61 per cent Remain

Anne Main – St Albans
Majority: 12,732 (23.4 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 64 per cent Remain

 

SNP-held:

John Nicolson – Dunbartonshire East
Majority: 2167 (4 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 71 per cent Remain

Michelle Thomson – Edinburgh West
Majority: 3210 (5.9 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 71 per cent Remain

Stephen Gethins – North East Fife
Majority: 4344 (9.6 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 62 per cent Remain

Paul Monaghan – Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Majority: 3844 (11.2 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 51 per cent Remain

Ian Blackford - Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Majority: 5124 (12.2 per cent)
EU referendum vote: 57 per cent Remain

 

 

 

CREDIT: CREATIVE COMMONS
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A group of men united only by sport was once my idea of hell. What changed?

It struck me, during the course of our team’s annual pre-season dinner, how much I like my team-mates. 

To the cricket team’s annual pre-season dinner. Although I’ve been playing for them for ten years or so, I’ve never been to one of these. This is because when I say “I’ve been playing for them for etc…” you’re probably not getting the right picture. What I mean is: I have played ten matches for them, and last year not at all, with a highest score of 22, and an average of 10.17. If you think that’s unimpressive, it’s a lot better than when I was a schoolboy, and I am just 26th placed out of 50 people who have played ten or more matches for them. Last year I was 25th, I see. Well, I’m going to have to do something about that.

The idea is that if I go to the dinner this time, it will inspire me to get in shape and play a game or two this season. I almost invariably enjoy it when I do, especially the time I was in a record-breaking tenth-wicket partnership of 72 while batting with a broken hand. (Well, finger. But a finger’s a part of the hand, isn’t it? Even the little finger.) I suppose there are times when I don’t enjoy it so much, such as when it’s raining hard enough for the cows in neighbouring fields to sit under a tree, but not hard enough to send us back to the pavilion or, better still, the pub, and the opposition are clouting us all over the ground despite the weather, and if we’d batted first – we never bat first, in my (limited) experience – the other lot would have polished us off about an hour ago, and we could now all be cosily inside the pavilion or, as I said earlier, even better, the pub. Then again, the team is called the Rain Men, so what did I expect?

So signing up for games involves considering a number of factors: some kind of mystic calculation about what the weather will be like, an assessment of how far away the ground is (we’re a nomadic team, so we don’t have one of our own), and how fit I think I’m going to be on the day. That’s the troublesome part. There is, of course, the melancholy of coming back, aching and knackered, at what is usually well after nine in the evening on a Sunday, lugging a cricket bag, like someone who has not been able to let go of his childhood and is out after his bedtime.

The fitness, as I said, is problematic. I got slightly out of puff going for a pee between the second and third paragraphs of this column, so I think there is going to be a lot of tedious spadework in store for me. My dumb-bells are in East Finchley, which I don’t go to, although as my cricket stuff is there too I suppose I’m going to have to bite that bullet sooner or later. If I eschew the dumb-bells then there will always be the floor, gravity, and push-ups. There will always be stairs, somewhere, I can run up and down, while I have the use of my legs. While there is an earth I can walk upon, I can walk upon it. The upper body strength, so I can pick up a cricket bat without falling over, is the thing to aim for, but right now the main goal is to be able to get out of bed and go to the loo without getting winded.

Anyway, the dinner. I decided that I’d walk to the restaurant. This was largely because the restaurant is about 200 yards from where I am holed up at the moment. There is, literally, only one restaurant closer to me. I walked a bit more than 200 yards because I had to swing by Sainsbury’s to pick up a couple of bottles of wine (the McGuigan’s Reserve Cab Sauv at £6.50 a bot, special offer, being the sedative of choice these days), as the restaurant is unlicensed. We met at the pub first, of course.

It struck me, during the course of the evening, how much I like my team-mates. I am by no means the oldest, so many of them are rich in wisdom and experience. (Amazingly, the team won more games last season than it has in its history, but that might have been because I hadn’t played for them.) Two of the people I am particularly fond of couldn’t make it, but at least I got to have A Long Rant About Life In General with Marcus Berkmann, author of two extremely amusing books about the team (Rain Men and Zimmer Men), as well as the greatest book about Star Trek ever written (Set Phasers to Stun).

Imagine: a long table sat at by a group of about 15 men, united only by a sport. It would once have been my idea of hell. So why is it not now? Is it because I actually like these guys? They’re not the typical idea of a cricket club gang, I have to say that. And we do, admittedly, talk about cricket a fair amount. But still. (I even liked I—, who gave up smoking and then had a rush of blood to the head last year and sent a round-robin email to the team saying how much he hated A—, one of our most lovable players. I— couldn’t make it to the dinner, largely on the grounds of not having been invited.) Or am I that lonely? 

Nicholas Lezard is a literary critic for the Guardian and also writes for the Independent. He writes the Down and Out in London column for the New Statesman.

This article first appeared in the 12 April 2018 issue of the New Statesman, Syria’s world war