When Rishi Sunak called the general election, the Tories had a record polling deficit. Despite various policy initiatives and relaunches, it was a deficit that had remained more or less static for many months. Some inside Downing Street believed it would only start to narrow once the public focused on the choice in front of them during an election campaign. Two weeks into that campaign, there is no sign of it narrowing. If anything, Labour’s lead has grown.
The Tory strategy has been straightforward. They have lost support to both their left and their right, but the view was that Reform UK’s support would be the easiest to squeeze. Appeal to older, socially authoritarian voters with talk of national service, tax breaks for pensioners and scrapping university degrees. Reform supporters would then switch back to the Tories, closing the gap with Labour. This would then change the dynamic of the race and put some pressure on Keir Starmer. After that, who knows?
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