How big is Boris Johnson’s Lib Dem problem?

The Liberal Democrats have cut Boris Johnson’s majority to one, and could make him think twice about a snap general election.

By Alan Wager and Guy Russo

LONDON, ENGLAND - JULY 22: LONDON, ENGLAND - JULY 22: New Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson addresses the audience onstage at Proud Embankment on July 22, 2019 in London, England. Former deputy Jo Swinson has been named as the new leader of the Liberal Democrats, replacing Sir Vince Cable. Swinson beat fellow candidate Ed Davey by 47,997 votes to 28,021 votes. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Despite last minute concerns that a Boris Johnson bounce would ruin her own honeymoon, Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats have cut the Prime Minister’s majority to one with a decisive 12 per cent swing to her party in rural Wales. But how many seats are there like Brecon and Radnorshire? In short, could Boris Johnson’s Lib Dem problem make him think twice about a snap general election?

There are two areas that matter most to the Liberal Democrats. First are the seats like Brecon and Radnorshire, which narrowly voted Leave but where their longstanding strength makes them a political presence. While this made yesterday’s by-election a must win, it’s worth noting there is a tranche of another dozen Conservative-Lib Dem marginals where the party is even closer to being first-past-the-post.