7 October 2014updated 05 Oct 2023 8:20am

Did Labour’s poll lead just vanish in a week?

Four of the six most recent polls have handed the Tories a lead, and an average of all suggests we are tied.

(Photo By Cameron's speech, or the media coverage that lauded it, may have shifted the polls. Photo: Getty.)

This post was originally published on our new elections site May2015.com.

On Friday YouGov put the Tories ahead in their polls for the first time in two-and-a-half-years. The result seemed like it could be an aberration, as a temporary Tory lead in May earlier this year quickly proved to be.

But two other YouGov polls have now put the party in front, along with Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll published yesterday. Are the Tories now ahead, after years of trailing Labour?

Populus, the only other pollster to poll as regularly, suggests not. Their two polls over the past week have handed Labour a 5 and 6 point lead – in line with the polls throughout September, which consistently gave Labour a lead of 3 to 4 points.

This chart shows all the polls published in the past fortnight by the UK’s major active polling companies. It shows how discordant the recent results are from the story we have become used to telling: Labour seem to be struggling but have consistently led.

That story may have finally changed. David Cameron does seem to have won a conference bounce. We will be tracking all the latest numbers to see if it lasts.