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28 March 2010

Sunday polls still in hung parliament territory

Two Sunday newspaper polls put the Conservatives on 37 per cent.

By Jon Bernstein

It wasn’t long ago that 40 per cent was seen as the must-hit target for the Conservatives, for psychological if not electoral reasons. So it is a mark of how the polls have narrowed since the turn of the year that the Tories will embrace two Sunday newspaper polls that have them on 37 points.

A BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday puts Labour on 30 per cent, a 7-point Conservative lead, while the YouGov daily tracker, published in the Sunday Times, puts the gap between the two parties at 5 points. Both polling organisations have been showing smaller Tory leads in recent weeks — notably a YouGov/Sun survey that put the difference between the parties at just 2 points earlier this week.

According to UK Polling Report‘s Uniform National Swing counter, the Tories remain 41 seats away from an overall majority. The inadequacies of applying a national swing are well known. Yet while it is commonly thought that Lord Ashcroft’s efforts in the marginals will mean the Conservatives can offset their electoral disadvantage, other factors may play against the party — Lib Dem incumbency and tactical voting, to name two.

UPDATE: An ICM poll for the News of the World — that’s the newly Tory-supporting NoW — puts the Conservatives on 39 points, up 1 on the previous week and 8 points ahead of Labour.

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The Lib Dems remain on 19 per cent.

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The poll also suggests that one in four people were less likely to vote Labour following last Wednesday’s Budget, compared to 9 per cent who said they were more likely.

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