Labour’s landslide election victory last year gave it rare power. Not since Tony Blair’s premiership has any UK government enjoyed a three-figure majority. Unlike most of his recent predecessors, Keir Starmer does not live in fear of defeat in the House of Commons.
This should liberate him to pursue the transformative programme that the UK needs. Britain’s problems are well documented: stagnant living standards, crumbling public services and a chronic housing shortage. After an unhappy first six months in government, Mr Starmer used his New Year’s address to invoke Clement Attlee’s postwar administration and vow to “rebuild” Britain.
In some areas, he can claim to be advancing. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is reforming antiquated planning laws to allow more housebuilding, and strengthening workers’ rights. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has lifted the onshore wind ban and approved four major solar farms. Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood is reforming prisons in a bid to end the overcrowding crisis.
Mr Starmer has made much of his willingness to take tough decisions shunned by others. “If the last few years have shown us anything, it’s that if you bury your head because things are difficult, your country goes backwards,” he declared in his Labour conference speech last year.
But there are limits to the Prime Minister’s boldness. For almost two decades, the UK has endured a social care crisis. Hospitals have been left unable to discharge thousands of costly patients for want of care home places. Successive governments have lacked the will or the ability to end the false economy.
In 2010 Andy Burnham’s bid to create a National Care Service was thwarted after the Conservatives denounced his proposal – a 10 per cent levy on estates – as a “death tax”. Theresa May’s plan foundered after the lack of a cap on costs led it to be branded a “dementia tax” by Labour. The Health and Social Care Levy introduced by Boris Johnson was scrapped by Liz Truss and never revived by Rishi Sunak – who spent £20bn on National Insurance cuts. No government has had the strength to insist that someone – whether older homeowners or younger workers – must pay to fix the crisis.
Equipped with a 174-seat majority, Labour had the chance to be different. Last September the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, told the New Statesman: “If I look back on my time in this office not having grasped the nettle of social care reform, I will have considered my time here a failure, and I’m not prepared to fail.”
Yet Labour is now replicating the pattern of previous administrations. On 3 January Mr Streeting announced the establishment of a new independent commission chaired by the crossbench peer Louise Casey. Though a respected figure, she will not issue her final recommendations until 2028. That is far too late. By the end of this parliament, Labour will be facing a challenging re-election campaign. The risk is that social care reform is once again put in the “too difficult” box.
Almost 25 years since the Blair administration rejected the conclusions of a royal commission, the UK does not need another lengthy inquiry on care. What it does need is a government with the courage to act.
As our medical editor Phil Whitaker warns on page 57, Labour’s approach is self-defeating. Mr Starmer used his first speech of the year to vow to reduce the near-record 7.5 million NHS waiting list. But it will be far harder to do so in the absence of social care reform.
Not for the first time, Labour’s promise of a “decade of renewal” is being marred by excessive caution. The party’s pre-election pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance (on employees) or VAT risks depriving it of the resources it needs to rebuild public services.
Though Rachel Reeves’ Budget prevented a return to austerity, spending on unprotected departments is due to fall by 1.1 per cent in real terms in 2026. Higher defence spending – demanded by the incoming US president, Donald Trump – and mediocre economic growth could further squeeze resources.
In this unpalatable climate, when will the money be found to end the social care crisis? By refusing to use its fresh mandate, Labour risks ensuring that the answer is never.
[See also: The edge of anarchy]
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This article appears in the 08 Jan 2025 issue of the New Statesman, The Great Power Gap