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22 January 2025

The peace paradox

The political calculations that allowed the Gaza ceasefire could yet be its undoing.

By Yair Wallach

The images that emerged on 19 January from Gaza and Israel felt like a much-longed-for reprieve. Three hostages, young Israeli women, were freed from Hamas captivity and united with their families in Israel. Gaza journalists were taking off body armour vests. Palestinian prisoners, mostly women who have been held without trial for many months, were released from Israeli prisons in the West Bank. After 471 bleak, long days, a ceasefire came into effect. Many hope that this war could finally be over.  

It started with Hamas’s devastating 7 October attack, which was the deadliest day in Israel’s history, with close to 800 civilians slain, and 251 people (overwhelmingly civilians) taken hostage. It was followed by Israel’s 15 months’ war against Gaza, one of the fiercest military campaigns against a civilian population in the 21st century. The death toll in Gaza stands at 46,600, and yet a peer-reviewed study in the Lancet suggested the real figure is likely higher by tens of thousands. The majority killed are estimated to be women, children and the elderly.  

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