Humanity’s hapless experiment with atmospheric chemistry gathers pace. Last year was the world’s hottest since pre-industrial times and we’re on track for 2.9°C of warming over the 21st century. Grapes are the world’s third-most valuable horticultural crop, after potatoes and tomatoes. Almost half of the 80 million tonnes of grapes produced in 2020 were transformed into wine and spirits: a processed food crop whose end use is more emotional than nutritional. Assuming we continue to allow ourselves the luxury of deploying agricultural land for mood enhancement, how will wine fare in the sinister decades to come?
Like all climate questions, the answer is complicated. A wide-ranging 2024 paper by Cornelis van Leeuwen and colleagues in Nature Reviews provided headline projections, notably that “90 per cent of traditional wine regions in coastal and lowland regions of Spain, Italy, Greece and southern California could be at risk of disappearing by the end of the century”. “Warmer temperatures might increase suitability for other regions (Washington State, Oregon, Tasmania, northern France) and are driving the emergence of new wine regions, like the southern United Kingdom.” But there’s ample nuance to add.
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