At last year’s Conservative conference in Manchester, Tory MPs spoke confidently about the identity of their next leader. “It will be George,” many predicted. Boris Johnson, the Chancellor’s chief rival, was said to have been marooned by the Tories’ unexpected majority in the general election a few months earlier. Osborne, David Cameron’s anointed successor, had a clear path to victory.
Almost six months later, the roles have been reversed. It is Osborne who is marginalised, while Johnson is heir apparent. The Mayor of London’s support for EU withdrawal has propelled him to a 13-point lead among Tory members in the most recent ConservativeHome poll (with a 33 per cent share). Ahead of his eighth Budget on 16 March, Osborne is in fourth place with 11 per cent, behind the Brexiters Michael Gove and Liam Fox. As recently as last October, he was leading by 15 points.
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