Where did it all go wrong for Labour in Scotland?
Labour’s attempt to turn the election into a referendum on the coalition was a disaster.
By George Eaton Published 06 May 2011 11:29
It was a terrible night for Labour in Scotland. The SNP has won a second straight victory and now looks like the natural party of devolved government. The proportional additional member system is designed to prevent any party from winning a majority (a safety valve against independence), but it looks like Alex Salmond could get one. The SNP is predicted to win 68 seats: an overall majority of three and the largest number of seats any party has ever won in the Scottish Parliament.
So, where did it all go wrong for Labour? As recently as March, the party was enjoying a double-digit lead in the polls. What's now clear is that its attempt to turn the election into a referendum on the Westminster coalition was a disastrous misjudgement. Ed Miliband urged the public to use the contest to give Labour "the best chance of stopping it [the coalition] going to the full term". But he badly misread the mood in Scotland after one term of SNP governance. The electorate chose to judge the contest on its own merits and concluded that Salmond would do a better job of standing up for Scottish interests than Iain Gray ("Gray by name, grey by nature"). The charismatic Salmond ran a textbook presidential campaign that give him the edge with swing voters.
The SNP's remarkable poll surge (up 12.3 per cent in the constituency section) is not the product of any increase in anti-Union sentiment. The most recent poll on the subject showed that just 33 per cent would vote in favour of independence, were a referendum to be held. It is precisely for this reason that so many chose to vote for Salmond's party. They were free to endorse his social-democratic policies (no tuition fees, no NHS prescription charges, free personal care for the elderly, free school meals for all five-to-eight-year-olds), safe in the knowledge that they retain a veto over independence. As Roy Hattersley (a Miliband ally) just admitted on the BBC, the SNP won because it offered something "genuinely radical". Salmond, a formidable politician, deftly positioned his party to the left of Labour and repelled the old gibe of "Tartan Tories".
In a leader published a week ago, we warned that failure in Scotland would be a big blow for Miliband's leadership. Labour has been denied what he rightly identified as a platform to set out a "real alternative" to the coalition government. This fact, combined with the inevitable rejection of AV, means that two significant opportunities to undermine the Tories have been missed.
Miliband has become associated with defeat dangerously early in his leadership. The prospect of an emboldened Tory party fighting the next election under first-past-the-post, having redrawn the constituency boundaries in its favour, is not a happy one for Labour.
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106 comments
And for those ignorant of Billy, have a gander on this,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_i9t-qgg6E
From what I've read and what my Scottish flatmate told me, there were two main reasons that people voted SNP:
(1) Alex Salmond was by far the most impressive potential first minister candidate and showed it par excellence in the TV debates.
(2) The SNP are considered to have done a pretty good job of governing Scotland and fought a positive campaign along those lines (i.e. instead of slagging of their opponents their message was "we've done a good job, re-elect us").
Meanwhile Labour were focusing their campaign on "stop those evil Tories and Lib Dems", which:
(a) appeared to ignore/forget that the SNP had been governing Scotland for the last term of Parliament (which was surely interpreted as rude, stupid or patronising, or possibly all three by SNP supporters and possibly helped convince some floating voters to move over to the SNP)
(b) appearing very Westminster focused (in a Scottish Parliament election...) thus doing part of the SNP's PR for it (i.e. boosting their claim to be solution for Scotland).
Although most SNP voters appear not be in favour of Scottish independence, Alex Salmond is playing a long game and given that he's won several unwinnable "battles" (governing Scotland and gaining a majority of the seats in the Parliament), I wouldn't be so sure that he will never win his "war".
Nigel Lipton,
good balanced post. I'm not a natural nationalist but have converted to the cause of Scottish independence over the past 5 or so years. Mainly because the differences between Scottish and UK political opinion have become more pronounced.
I too believe it would probably lead to a healthier relationship between Scotland and England that has become increasingly bitter between some based on arguments around finances.
I also get the feeling that independence is now likely as the SNP will pick their moment carefully. Interesting point about English identity and wouldn't disagree though can't claim to fully understand that issue.
Looking forward to developments that will be the start of a positive change for both countries.
'Keir, by implying genius I only mean that events are unfolding exactly as he would wish them to.'
Making election promises is the easy bit. Keeping voters sweet is another thing altogether. And the Scots seem to be in a dream. They think they've voted for the end of capitalism. Well, it ain't so simple.
...or, should I say an ill-informed and petty man.
No, Lox, neither. Rather well informed and rather generous, actually. Stuart has kindly provided but a small sample of the over-whelming evidence that English taxpayers subsidise a standard of living in the barking, vote-providing Celtic fringe that they themselves do not enjoy. But enough is enough. Patient simmering irritation with the self-applauding Scottish conspiracy of mediocrity is becoming exasperated anger, which will overwhelm you. If you do not leave, you will be despatched. As the Euro protected the Greeks from their own incompetence and profligacy, so the Barnet formula and the Scots. So, buy a decent text on economics (a clue: oil and whisky will not be enough if you don't work hard, pay tax and live within your means, rather than the means of others). Then leave: the first useful thing you will have done for yourselves in a millennium or so.
Ehtch Tee
As you've chosen to reply in a moderate tone this time, so shall I, Westminster, by which I mean The United Kingdon Government is responsible for quite a lot of stupid decisions that equally affected massive areas of England as well as Wales and Scotland. Those various govenments were made up of people from every country of the UK.
I'm quite happy to see the breakup of the UK, indeed would welcome it. I would hope that it could be a happy and friendly divorce, I hope you do too.
Passion, that is the secret, rational passion that is, unlike, cough!, some places in the UK!
Come on Scotland, go for independence, take your failed banks and cretinous Labour politicians, you know you won't regret it. Please.
@rob c, take your pills and go to bed.
Stuart Eels - Touchy! Any chance of some tickets for your poncey Wimbledon, or the Ascot Races, or even Henley, I like rowing me - I'll bring me own boat? I wear me best sunday suit, and have a haircut, and a bath, and get neself de-nitted..
People view the SNP as being more 'labour' than Labour.
I'm gutted that Galloway never made it though.
And Stuart, have you heard of creative accountancy? Can create any look they want, dependent on where the power lies.
Jean Freeman, ex adviser to Labour first Minister eloquently explained on BBC Scotland today that Labour has failed to take defeat in 2007 seriously, took its electorate for granted and used scare tactics which assumed the whole electorate were stupid.
Well done Scotland !
Never thought one would see this day.
Now, go for independence... PLEASE !
The SNP stand up for Scotland, the Unionist parties have failed Scotland time after time after time.
Labour will have to accept that their Welsh Scotish and Irish Parties may want a greater degree of freedom from the National Labour Party, and that we are moving to a more federal structure, which is a good thing.
Cameron says 'Broken Britain' - rich coming from the man who just ripped the union jack apart.
Where did it go wrong? Treating the electorate as idiots probably didn't help.
In my area the Labour campaign was based on a negative scare campaign with leaflets showing a hoodie wielding a knife with the slogan 'SNP soft of crime, soft on knife crime'. This despite the fact crime is at its lowest in 32 years and the numbers of murders have decreased dramatically! Good call, Labour.
If you are going to run a negative campaign at least base it on a reality.
Time to get rid of Miliband. He has made too many mistakes and has all the charisma of a wet fish. I voted for him but I am severely disappointed. Labour will not win with Ed Mil.
@Robert Taggart
I'm not sure about Scottish politics but wouldn't independence (although few Scots want it) would be a disaster for the Scots?
How are the Scots funding all the nice things? Just think that if they can't deliver on them thats an IF due to the economic state of the world...
Norway can with 5 millions inhb.
so come on scotland we norwegians are waiting for your independence.
As someone once said;
"Rejoice Rejoice Rejoice"
Still some numskulls voting Labour in enclaves but hopefully they will be re educated or smoked out
Yes Scotland, please declare UDI. 1st you will lose Faslane and Rosyth Naval Dockyards. Then all UK Government offices will be transferred back to England. There's a nice little rise in your unemployment rate for starters.And it will get worse. By the way, can anyone explain why Scotland has 129 MSP's but only 72 (I think) Westminister MPs who are doing what appears to be the same task?
Stuart Eels- we have met in the middle, excellent, tidy. Wales will go further than England in New Zealand this autumn, by the way.
Anyway, now this problem with our friends from the north, wanting to break the union, they won't go far in NZ. Is that is what their problem is, that they do not know how to play sport anymore?
Denmark also can with approx 5 million of a population. The break up of the union might get the English to really take a look at how they are treated by their government.
Stuart Eels - link,
http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/
The answer is of course "AV".
Labour opted for the guy who came 2nd. Labour chose not to be lead by a winner.
The public don't vote for losers.
We've a similar population to Norway and Switzerland, with the bonus that we have BOTH a major financial sector AND oil. I reckon we could do alright.
Crucially, like both of these nations, non-EU status would also be a must for a truly independent Scotland to thrive.
Wha's like us?
Ehtch Tee
Touchy? Not at all, quite calm asking you sensible questions all you can answer,in your hatred of my country comes shining through because you know your country would go bust very very fast without our handouts.
Creative Accountancy? just what does that mean? give me "your accountancy" which shows in any way Wales making a net contribution to the British economy. You can't and you know it, it's always been the same since Edward gave you some work to do building Castles.
To what extent is Scotland subsidised by the rest of the UK? It might be worthwhile the SNP's mathematicians / economists getting their calculators out and doing some number crunching to determine the financial impact before setting the wheels in motion for a referendum on independence.
Benjamin and Nigel Lipton
Still waiting for your replies!
Scotland needs a big spend to promote sports from kiddies to OAPs, to try and keep them out the pubs and drams as much as possible. Their performance in the last few years in the Magners League has been pants. And the chance of Celtic or Rangers winning another European Cup is light-miles away.
Yep. smell the coffee England, Scotland has all the wealth and for a long time. Bernard Ingham did his nest to hid it from Little Englanders, but that is the simple truth.
By the way, at the moment, us Wales has fuck all, even with suppossed unsuccussful gas and oil exploration between us and Oireland, wink-wink.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYdx-vcRmVc
What proportion of Scots with a job in the private sector actually live and work in Scotland and so would pay taxes there?
How would an independent Scotland fund all those who depend on the state for their income, whether as employees or recipients of benefit?
Please now go. But a few things before you do. Send back the taxes paid by hard-working English private sector taxpayers to the Scottish workshy public sector; and all the mal-located State infrastructure positioned to buy McVotes and reward the Alban nomenklatura. Take back your corrupt and incompetent politicians and your risibly biassed broadcasters. That should leave you only to say thanks (go on, try it) for six decades of shameless sponging; and to decide on your new national state language. Stick with Gaelic; or switch to Greek or Portuguese.
@mittfh
Good point we do give the Scotts a whole load of cash... i can't remember how much but it was one of the talking points a couple of years ago.
Once all the UK companies that trade in Scotland start having to pay their taxes in Scotland........What subsidy?
But if only the English electorate wouldn't keep electing these ridiculous Tory governments there'd be no need for any of this unpleasantness. And god help England with a government it's elected by itself.
Is Stu short for stupid?
@mittfh - A study by IFS showed that the "subsidy" to Scotland under the Barnett formula just about balances the effect of sharing the oil revenues across the UK. However, there is a significantly disproportionate amount of UK government expenditure in Scotland, not least on defence establishments and procurement.
Speaking as an ex-Labour supporter and SNP voter, it is a bloody great result!
Dave; "People view the SNP as being more 'Labour' than Labour."
I think that is a very shrewd observation Dave - actually I would say - that in Scotland - the SNP are seen as being more anti-Tory than Labour - hence their success in this national Anti Tory / Lib Dem atmosphere. That's a wake up call for Ed Milliband but an obituary for the Cameron clan (Eton branch). The Tories and the Tory media may well sneer at Labour's failure north of the border - but it is the empty sneering of the utterly vanquished. (in Scotland anyway - for the time being)
Bit o' reading-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4238744.stm
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/06/22160331/10
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/learning-to-live-withou...
Scotland would still have a deficit even with oil revenue taken into account. How this could/would change were Scotland to manage its own affairs in the following years is moot.
Personally, I am for a referendum for Scotland. On one condition: Danny Alexander be coated in melted Mars Bars and then deep fried.
So if Scotland does become independent, you can take Gordon Brown and the Scots MPs.
You can take your share of RBS and the rest of the UK will let you have what's left of the oil.
We'll be rid of Labour for two generations and also won't have to fund Scotland at 118% of its tax receipts.
Best of luck with independence, you'll be doing the union and the remainder of the UK the world of good.
Swing voters - does that include Tommy Sheridan?
An England, although I do not wish to see the union broken up, if the referendum takes place, so be it.
England will have to deal with the influx of impoverished migrants heading over the border a fear years after that, I fear.
@Mike
I take back what I said... as I don't know much about Scottish politics it seems that the subsidy is abit of a myth... hmmm... anyway without proof i will say no more on that comment.
Andrew Neil too? Franie Boyle? That bird fron Newsnight? Bay City Rollers? Christ, England would be barren if they all left.
Thanks Gudmond, we are coming FREEDOM!!!
Go on, Scotland, go for independence. The English are fed up with handing over a big, fat cheque to you year on year, please go your own way.
And take all that "oil revenue" with you, you can keep it. Just go.
It is high time you stood on your own two feet, leave, leave. If the English had ever had a say in a referendum to break up the union you would have been booted out years ago, please go.
If Scotland, Labour's welfare bloated client state, have foresworn Labour, then that's if for Labour. Devolution or not, the West Lothian question MUST now be answered, to deal with the unhealthy hold on England that Scottish Labour MPs have.