Will Brown face one last rebellion?

Rebels explore the "Aznar option"

Barry Sheerman, once described as the leader of Labour's internal opposition, is at it again in the Independent today, calling for Gordon Brown to resign. He writes:

No one would wish to underrate the significant contribution that Gordon Brown has made to our nation's politics. We all understand that, at heart, he wants the very best for Britain. However, now is the time for those around him who also care about our country's future to convince him that it is time for him to make way for a new leader.

Sheerman's intervention follows that of Charles Clarke, who in a typically robust article on Wednesday declared:

All the evidence suggests that Brown's leadership reduces Labour support, that alternative leaders would improve our ratings, and that an election determined by voters' answers to the question "Do you want Gordon Brown to be Prime Minister for the next five years?" would further shrink Labour support.

The psephological case against Brown is a strong one. No prime minister has been as unpopular as him and gone on to win the subsequent election. A recent Times leader revealed that Philip Gould has told the cabinet that Labour could win only if it replaced Brown.

This said, I'm rather sceptical of polls showing that Labour would do better under almost any alternative leader. To most voters, Harriet Harman and David Miliband are mere names. They don't know enough to dislike them.

The latest idea canvassed by the rebels is the so-called "Aznar option". Under this scenario, Brown, like the former Spanish premier, would remain Prime Minister until the election but Labour would elect a new leader to fight the campaign.

Matthew Taylor, who first explored the possibility back in August, points out:

In this way the internal contest within the party for its next leader is not about foisting a new prime minister on the country, but about choosing someone about whom the voters can make up their own mind.

The main stumbling block to any rebellion remains the absence of a definitive, Heseltine-type challenger to Brown. This is something of a pity, as the narrowing of the polls may actually strengthen the case for replacing Brown. In a hung parliament, a pluralist figure such as David Miliband would be far more likely to cut a deal with Nick Clegg than the tribal Brown.

History suggests that Sheerman and Clarke aren't likely to rouse a rebellion, but I'd be surprised if large parts of the PLP aren't considering all options as we enter 2010.

 

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Harriet Harman warns that the Brexit debate has been dominated by men

The former deputy leader hit out at the marginalisation of women's voices in the EU referendum campaign.

The EU referendum campaign has been dominated by men, Labour’s former deputy leader Harriet Harman warns today. The veteran MP, who was acting Labour leader between May and September last year, said that the absence of female voices in the debate has meant that arguments about the ramifications of Brexit for British women have not been heard.

Harman has written to Sharon White, the Chief of Executive of Ofcom, expressing her “serious concern that the referendum campaign has to date been dominated by men.” She says: “Half the population of this country are women and our membership of the EU is important to women’s lives. Yet men are – as usual – pushing women out.”

Research by Labour has revealed that since the start of this year, just 10 women politicians have appeared on the BBC’s Today programme to discuss the referendum, compared to 48 men. On BBC Breakfast over the same time period, there have been 12 male politicians interviewed on the subject compared to only 2 women. On ITV’s Good Morning Britain, 18 men and 6 women have talked about the referendum.

In her letter, Harman says that the dearth of women “fails to reflect the breadth of voices involved with the campaign and as a consequence, a narrow range [of] issues ends up being discussed, leaving many women feeling shut out of the national debate.”

Harman calls on Ofcom “to do what it can amongst broadcasters to help ensure women are properly represented on broadcast media and that serious issues affecting female voters are given adequate media coverage.” 

She says: "women are being excluded and the debate narrowed.  The broadcasters have to keep a balance between those who want remain and those who want to leave. They should have a balance between men and women." 

A report published by Loughborough University yesterday found that women have been “significantly marginalised” in reporting of the referendum, with just 16 per cent of TV appearances on the subject being by women. Additionally, none of the ten individuals who have received the most press coverage on the topic is a woman.

Harman's intervention comes amidst increasing concerns that many if not all of the new “metro mayors” elected from next year will be men. Despite Greater Manchester having an equal number of male and female Labour MPs, the current candidates for the Labour nomination for the new Manchester mayoralty are all men. Luciana Berger, the Shadow Minister for mental health, is reportedly considering running to be Labour’s candidate for mayor of the Liverpool city region, but will face strong competition from incumbent mayor Joe Anderson and fellow MP Steve Rotheram.

Last week, Harriet Harman tweeted her hope that some of the new mayors would be women.  

Henry Zeffman writes about politics and is the winner of the Anthony Howard Award 2015.