Without Andy Burnham, Labour is likely to lose the Gorton and Denton by-election. The NEC officers’ decision to block the party’s most popular figure nationally from standing may cost Labour the seat.
Gorton and Denton could come down to the wire. But Labour starts on the back foot, with a very split “left” vote, and current polling putting Reform more than a few thousand votes ahead. Making up that difference during the campaign – without the help of Burnham-friendly Labour volunteers – will not be easy.
But if Labour loses Gorton and Denton, and performs poorly in the 7 May local elections and Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections, Starmer may still face a leadership challenge. Burnham would have comfortably won a membership vote against Starmer. If he is not eligible, who else could run against the Prime Minister?
The real winner from the NEC officers’ decision is Wes Streeting. There have been claims the Health Secretary has the backing of near 200 members of the parliamentary party to take over from Starmer were the PM to fall on his own sword.
Streeting is the current front-runner in the parliamentary Labour Party. Among the rank and file, though, he is more divisive. Six in ten view him favourably (note this does not mean they want him to be leader) while four in ten have an unfavourable view. Survation’s regular polling of Labour members finds little change in the past year – just 2 per cent don’t know what to think of Streeting.
Streeting polls less favourably among Labour members than Burnham, Lisa Nandy, John Healey and Ed Miliband. In a hypothetical leadership election, he only polls two points ahead of Starmer.
A majority of Labour members – 54 per cent – say a new leader needs to be in place before the 2029 general election, while only three in ten want a continuation of the current top team. Streeting would probably defeat Starmer in a head-to-head contest, but if he has to face off against another, more soft-left, candidate, it might be trickier. The question is: who from the Labour left – soft or not – would run?
While Miliband is overwhelmingly popular with members, they are less sure of him as a potential leader. The only current potential challenger polled who would emphatically win with the rank and file is Angela Rayner.
Rayner is the members’ choice, but as I’ve written elsewhere, she is not particularly popular with the public. In August last year, she polled worse with voters than Jeremy Corbyn. A silver lining for Starmer.
[Further reading: Exclusive poll: Let Burnham stand, voters say]
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