Editor’s note: This piece was originally published on 29 January 2025. It was updated and republished on 4 February following the latest YouGov voting intention figures.
Now two polls have put Nigel Farage’s Reform party in the lead, ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives: a one point lead with YouGov, and a four point lead with Find Out Now. And it’s a long time coming. This never happened with Ukip. It did happen for a few weeks with the Brexit Party, but those circumstances were unique. In the aftermath of the 2019 European elections the European question was simply high in salience. This time it’s different. These two leads for Reform come six/seven months into a new government, where the dominant issues of the day are conventional and domestic.
Are these figures mere outliers? Not really. Other polls point to Reform as a seriously competitive force. Britain Elects (my model) still gives Labour a lead, but by one point over Reform, not the Conservatives.
The FindOutNow survey – which triggered this entire conversation, now backed by YouGov – accounts for non-voters too. It indicates where those who didn’t show up in July might go now. And this exposes something important and forgotten about elections. Candidates are gaining and losing voters at the same time. If an election was held now Labour could win 1.1 million votes from non-voters in July, but could also lose 2.9 million of their cohort too.
So Reform’s lead comes from two places. First, there is a huge level of apathy among the electorate. Almost one million of those who voted Conservative in July say they’re unsure how they would vote now (so in this instance Reform’s lead is less about their own gains and more about other party’s losses). Second, there are a projected 3.4 million who didn’t vote in July who might vote for Reform now. So we have historical non-voters showing up and historical voters staying in, accounting for almost half the total Reform vote if an election were held now.
It’s hard to know whether this will sustain itself. Non-voters are erratic and unreliable. But this shift is not meaningless.
[See more: Why doubts are growing over Kemi Badenoch]
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