Editor’s note: This piece was originally published on 29 January 2025. It was updated and republished on 4 February following the latest YouGov voting intention figures.
Now two polls have put Nigel Farage’s Reform party in the lead, ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives: a one point lead with YouGov, and a four point lead with Find Out Now. And it’s a long time coming. This never happened with Ukip. It did happen for a few weeks with the Brexit Party, but those circumstances were unique. In the aftermath of the 2019 European elections the European question was simply high in salience. This time it’s different. These two leads for Reform come six/seven months into a new government, where the dominant issues of the day are conventional and domestic.
Content from our partners
