Leading the Conservative Party after their recent electoral calamity was always going to be one of the toughest gigs in politics. A return to high office within five years should be impossible: too many safe seats, for instance, became marginal. But the obscene unpopularity of the Labour administration makes me pause: could a Conservative comeback be on the cards? To project anything about the next election with certainty this far out is foolish. But writing the Tories off entirely is even more so.
But there are two forces stymieing the recovery: the first is Nigel Farage, incredibly popular with the Tory base. The second is Kemi Badenoch. The pair are competing for oxygen.
The polls this week have Reform winning more than a fifth of the vote, and more than a few dozen seats. Some wildcard polls suggest Reform could secure more than 100 seats in parliament, but we shouldn’t be so credulous. My own modelling points to a more conservative estimate.
Reform is only one explanatory factor when it comes to the Conservatives’ slow recovery. Since getting the top job, Badenoch has gone from virtual non-entity with the public to unpopular entity with the public. As of January, 22 per cent of Britons had a favourable opinion of her, up from the first impression position of 19 per cent at the start of November. But those with an unfavourable opinion? That’s up from 25 per cent to 36 per cent.
And here’s something a bit tricky for the already-beleaguered Tory leader: her own appeal among the 2024 Labour electoral base is at five per cent, but some 25 per cent of that same base have said they could consider voting Conservative at the next election. It is important to remember that a sizeable portion of 2024 Labour voters were former Conservative voters. Nevertheless, it’s not good news for Badenoch when a bevvy of Labour voters are saying “I might considered the Tories, but not with that leader!”
Badenoch has failed to move the dial on her party’s poll rating, and she is failing to capture the public imagination. But to what extent do first impressions matter? Starmer was more popular at the start of his leadership than she is, but that started to fade over the pandemic. The poor perception stayed that way, and it didn’t stop him from entering No 10. So this is survivable. Her challenge is to eke out an advantage over Starmer, and not worry about Farage.
[See also: The doctor will see you never – the NHS in 2025]
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