This is not the contest that Labour was preparing for. Across the summer plenty of MPs ruminated on who could succeed Keir Starmer (with the aftermath of next May’s elections viewed as a moment of vulnerability). But it was a measure of Angela Rayner’s internal strength that her position was thought unassailable.
Now the party finds itself thrown into an unfamiliar world. Not since 1981 – when Tony Benn faced off against Denis Healey – has Labour elected a deputy without an accompanying leadership contest. Faced with this, some inside the party argued that the post should simply be abolished. “The role of deputy leader invites theatre without remit,” wrote Tom Watson (who ironically survived a Corbynite attempt at abolition in 2019). “It duplicates authority and muddies accountability.” But perhaps mindful of the unhappy precedent, that’s not a fight Starmer was willing to have.
The bar for entry, however, is deliberately high. Candidates need at least 80 MP nominations (or 20 per cent) – a legacy of the 2021 rule changes that Starmer’s team fought so hard to secure – and must achieve this threshold by 5pm on Thursday. (They also need the backing of at least 5 per cent of constituency parties and three affiliated bodies of which two must be trade unions.)
It’s possible that just two candidates – one representing the leadership and one representing sceptics – or even the former alone, may make the ballot. Here’s why some significant contenders have been quick to rule themselves out. Rosena Allin-Khan, who finished second to Rayner in 2020 with 26.1 per cent of the vote, is the latest to do so. “The field is too crowded and it’s going to split the vote,” an ally tells me (Allin-Khan is also a frontrunner to become Labour’s next London mayoral candidate). Louise Haigh has said that she will focus on campaigning for an “economic reset” (MPs also believe memories of her cabinet resignation over a 2013 fraud conviction are too fresh).
This leaves Lucy Powell – backed by fellow northerner Andy Burnham – and Emily Thornberry, both ousted from Starmer’s team, as the frontrunners to represent backbenchers (Bell Ribeiro-Addy of the Socialist Campaign Group has declared but will not make the ballot).
There is no mystery about who the government frontrunner is: Bridget Phillipson. The Education Secretary declared this morning and is a strong contender for several reasons. First, she’s a northern woman in a contest in which that is deemed a premium (Alison McGovern, the Birkenhead MP and devolution minister, is also considering standing).
Second, Phillipson enjoys an approval rating of +28 among party members, making her the fifth most favoured cabinet minister. Her school reforms may have antagonised Blairites – who previously regarded the Education Secretary as one of their own – but they are a positive attribute among members and Phillipson can point to a suite of popular policies: VAT on private school fees, breakfast clubs and 30 hours of free childcare (an ally says that “going further” on the latter will be a key part of her campaign and that she has a “track record of beating the populist right without compromising on Labour values”).
The risk for Phillipson is that the contest becomes a referendum on the government (which 64 per cent of party members believe is heading in the wrong direction). As a serving cabinet minister she will be unable to stray from collective responsibility on the war in Gaza, the two-child benefit cap, wealth taxation and any other issue that preoccupies activists.
That’s why the Education Secretary’s best hope of victory may be winning the contest before it has truly begun. Could a split vote enable a coronation for Phillipson? That’s certainly what No 10 will be hoping this morning.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: Bell Ribeiro-Addy has changed Labour’s deputy leadership race]
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