
Each generation declares that it has settled the European question; each time it returns in a new form. So it is with Brexit.
Rather than resolving the argument over Europe, the referendum eternalised it. Before the vote, the EU was a matter of indifference to most. After it stood two great tribes: Remainers and Leavers. A slapdash trade deal was destined to be wrangled over (as Norway and Switzerland could have advised).
For Keir Starmer, Europe is a familiar thread. As a lawyer, he championed the expansion of European human rights law – authoring a 938-page tome on the subject – and saw the EU underwrite peace in Northern Ireland and cross-border security. As a politician, he used the Remain cause to break from the Corbynite script and offer himself as a leader-in-waiting in 2018. Now, as Prime Minister, he finds himself at the Palais d’Egmont, the venue where Ted Heath agreed the UK’s accession to the European Economic Community in 1972.
Five years after Brexit, Europe remains a geographic and economic fact of life. Leavers’ dreams of alternative unions – remember “CANZUK”? – have foundered. Rather than becoming more American or more Singaporean, the UK’s economy is becoming progressively more European: higher spending, higher taxes, higher labour standards. Faced with this trajectory, isolation from the EU appears ever more anomalous.
True, Brussels is hardly a byword for political and economic vitality. But look to Spain where GDP has risen 3.5 per cent year-on-year, or to Poland where living standards are projected to outstrip Britain’s by 2030. As in the 1960s, when Conservative politician Iain Macleod coined the term “stagflation”, an infirm Britain asks itself whether some European sun could ease its ailments.
The political winds propelling Labour’s EU “reset” are growing stronger. Brexit’s fifth birthday was marred by rude interjections: just 30 per cent of voters now believe the UK was right to leave the EU and only 11 per cent believe the project has been a success (note how few challenged Rachel Reeves’ reference last week to the “failed Brexit deal”). Sixty four per cent favour a closer relationship with Europe, while 55 per cent are outright Rejoiners. The classic Farageiste contention – that elite opinion is on the wrong side of the people – can now be thrown back at Leavers.
Set against Brexit’s dismal reviews, Labour’s reset can’t help but appear underwhelming. Starmer is seeking a new UK-EU defence and security pact and deals on food and agricultural goods, energy, touring artists and professional qualifications. It is the government’s “red lines” that stand out: “There will be no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement.”
The latter complicates negotiations over a European youth mobility scheme – one of the EU’s chief demands along with, naturally, stronger fishing rights – which would revive free movement for the under-30s. Rejoining the Erasmus student exchange programme and allowing fixed-term visas for some young EU nationals are viewed by ministers as more palatable options.
Only political pressure will force a more ambitious approach. Having proved remarkably ineffectual since Brexit, Remainers are regrouping. The Liberal Democrats – who previously appeared frightened of their own European policy – are now urging Starmer to embrace a customs union as a shield against Donald Trump. But No 10 hopes the US president will bring more opportunities than costs (he signalled yesterday that the UK could avoid the tariffs that the EU is facing).
And for all the disillusionment with Brexit, here is the number that will concentrate minds in Downing Street: just 8 per cent of voters regard the UK’s relationship with the EU as one of the most important issues facing the country. A Remain-like push risks antagonising not just Leavers but those who – their ears still ringing from the Brexit wars – simply want a quiet life.
Yet throughout British history there has been something remorseless about the European question. Try to suppress it and it resurges in unexpected – and sometimes seismic – ways. Starmer’s challenge is to ensure he is not swept away.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: Could John Rawls save the Labour Party?]