Voting has begun in the 2024 general election. This isn’t a piece from the future: postal ballots started landing on doormats last week. Research suggests that most voters return them within 48 hours (and around 20 per cent use this method). The Conservatives’ problem isn’t just that polls suggest they will lose the election; it’s that they show they are losing it.
For the Tories, 4 July will mark the end of a long electoral advance. They have increased their share of the vote at every general election since 2010 (yes, including under Theresa May in 2017). But this achievement – going from 36.1 per cent to 43.6 per cent – has depended as much on fear as on hope.
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