England will enter tonight’s European Championship semi-final against Denmark with a 70 per cent chance of winning, according to the Elo rating system. Denmark’s 30 per cent chance of victory is similar to Donald Trump’s likelihood of winning the US presidency in 2016.
England versus Denmark will be shown on ITV, not the BBC, and is expected to attract a domestic audience in excess of 20 million viewers. Some 20.9 million tuned in to watch England rout Ukraine 4-0 last Saturday (3 July) and 20.6 million watched England settle some scores with Germany in last month’s 2-0 win (the data excludes pubs and public viewing screens).
In 1966, 32.3 million were estimated to have watched England beat West Germany in the World Cup Final, but owing to methodological differences and unreliable sources, the figure does not feature.
The challenge tonight is whether the audience for England vs Denmark will exceed 25 million. Estimates suggest that 26.5 million watched England fall to Croatia in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, the highest known audience for an England football match in UK TV history.
By comparison, some 12.8 million tuned in to watch this year’s Line of Duty finale and 11.6 million watched England’s first Euro 2020 match, against Croatia.
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