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16 April 2013

Miliband and the myth of the “35 per cent strategy“

Aiming for 35 per cent would mean settling for less. But it would be foolish not to recognise that, as in 2005, it could prove enough for a Labour majority.

By George Eaton

Rachel Sylvester’s Times column has caused a stir in Labour circles this morning, with its claim that some in the party believe Ed Miliband is pursuing a “35 per cent strategy”. This would amount to securing the 29 per cent of voters who backed Labour in 2010, and adding on another six per cent of Lib Dem defectors in order to inch over the line. Dan Hodges similarly claims on his Telegraph blog: “Labour’s leader thinks that if he can convince just 35 per cent of voters to give his party the benefit of the doubt in 2015, he’ll win. Tony Blair is not alone in thinking it’s a strategy that is fundamentally flawed.” 

It’s hard to reconcile this with Miliband’s aspiration to be a “one nation” prime minister and the “35 per cent” line is a fairly obvious and crude attempt to undermine his leadership. As one source close to the Labour leader told me this morning, “Aiming for 35 per cent suggests we’d settle for less, which is one of many reasons why it would be stupid to have that as our strategy.” 

There isn’t (and nor should there be) a “35 per cent strategy” but the debate over it is a good example of the increasing disparity between politics and psephology. After all, Labour’s last victory in 2005, which saw it win a majority of 66, was achieved on a vote share of 35.2 per cent. Miliband will rightly aim to improve on this performance but with the boundary changes now abandoned, it is true that Labour only needs a small lead to secure a stable majority. The divided right (UKIP is now certain to improve on its 2010 share of 3.1 per cent) and the collapse of support for the Lib Dems in Tory-Labour marginals are strong points in the party’s favour. There is no contradiction in wanting Labour to win on its terms, while also recognising these advantages. The disdain for Miliband’s alleged “35 per cent strategy” says much more about the disagreement some have with his political choices (a different debate) than it does about Labour’s prospects of victory. 

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