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10 September 2012

Obama’s re-election looks an ever-safer bet

US president opens up a five-point lead over Romney in latest national poll.

By George Eaton

Despite his rather underwhelming convention speech and Friday’s mediocre US jobs figures, Barack Obama is looking an ever-safer bet for re-election. The latest Gallup national poll gives him a five-point lead over Mitt Romney (49-44), the largest he has enjoyed since early July, compared to a one-point lead before the Democratic Convention. Worse for Romney, since the Gallup poll is based on a rolling seven-day average (meaning that some of it was conducted before the key speeches last week), Obama’s real lead could be even larger.

In addition, approval with Obama has risen from 45% before the convention to 50%, the level that typically guarantees re-election. Significantly, this is a far larger bounce than that received by Romney, who saw support for him rise by a statistically insignificant one point after the Republican convention.

Finally, Obama has also extended his lead in Ohio, the most likely “tipping point” state, (see Nicky Woolf’s on-the-ground report for the NS). Overnight, the first Ohio poll since the convention gave Obama a five-point lead over Romney (50-45), his largest since early May.

Barring some unexpected foreign or economic crisis, Romney’s only remaining chance to change the state of the race will come with the presidential TV debates, the first of which is on 3 October. But it will be worth watching the polls closely for the next fortnight. As a study by political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien showed, the candidate who leads in the polls two weeks after the conventions has won the popular vote in the last 15 presidential elections.

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