Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Spotlight
  2. Elections
10 September 2012

Obama’s re-election looks an ever-safer bet

US president opens up a five-point lead over Romney in latest national poll.

By George Eaton

Despite his rather underwhelming convention speech and Friday’s mediocre US jobs figures, Barack Obama is looking an ever-safer bet for re-election. The latest Gallup national poll gives him a five-point lead over Mitt Romney (49-44), the largest he has enjoyed since early July, compared to a one-point lead before the Democratic Convention. Worse for Romney, since the Gallup poll is based on a rolling seven-day average (meaning that some of it was conducted before the key speeches last week), Obama’s real lead could be even larger.

In addition, approval with Obama has risen from 45% before the convention to 50%, the level that typically guarantees re-election. Significantly, this is a far larger bounce than that received by Romney, who saw support for him rise by a statistically insignificant one point after the Republican convention.

Finally, Obama has also extended his lead in Ohio, the most likely “tipping point” state, (see Nicky Woolf’s on-the-ground report for the NS). Overnight, the first Ohio poll since the convention gave Obama a five-point lead over Romney (50-45), his largest since early May.

Barring some unexpected foreign or economic crisis, Romney’s only remaining chance to change the state of the race will come with the presidential TV debates, the first of which is on 3 October. But it will be worth watching the polls closely for the next fortnight. As a study by political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien showed, the candidate who leads in the polls two weeks after the conventions has won the popular vote in the last 15 presidential elections.

Select and enter your email address Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. A weekly newsletter helping you fit together the pieces of the global economic slowdown. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The best of the New Statesman, delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section and the NS archive, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
I consent to New Statesman Media Group collecting my details provided via this form in accordance with the Privacy Policy
THANK YOU

Content from our partners
Flooding is a major risk for our homes
Why competition is the key to customer satisfaction
High streets remain vitally important to local communities