If David Cameron really wants to pay off “the nation’s credit card”, he might want to adopt a less restrictive immigration policy. One of the headline findings of today’s Office for Budget Responsibility Fiscal sustainability report is that a high level of net migration helps to reduce government borrowing. It notes:
Higher net inward migration than in our central projection – closer to the levels we have seen in recent years, for example – would put downward pressure on borrowing and PSND, as net immigrants are more likely to be of working age than old age than the population in general.
As the graph above shows, while zero net migration would see the national debt rise to more than 160% of GDP by 2060-61, a policy of high migration would see it increase to little more than 40%. Yet Cameron, who has described deficit reduction as the “guiding task” of the coalition, seems determined to impose even more restrictions on immigration, recently suggesting that the UK could block Greek migrants from entering the country if Greece leaves the euro. Reducing net migration “from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands”, as Cameron aims to do, would significantly weaken the economy. But the PM, never one for detail, is unlikely to be swayed by the OBR.