When Olaf Scholz was elected German chancellor in 2021, the direst consequences of Angela Merkel’s policies were not yet apparent: Germany’s geopolitical alliance with Russia and dependence on Russian gas; a complacent industrial policy; a woeful underinvestment in defence. All these issues blew up shortly after Scholz took power.
Now, just over two years into his tenure, the German public seems to have decided that Scholz is not up to the task. His popularity ratings are the lowest ever recorded by a German chancellor. The three parties of his coalition – the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the liberal FDP – are together polling at 32 per cent, down 20 points from the election. With the usual caveats about polls being unreliable guides – especially to an election that is still 18 months away – a second term for Scholz looks improbable.
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