Last week I had a stab at predicting how the next few months would play out. So far, so accurate. An early confidence vote was held, the Prime Minister won it but the rebellion was substantial (I forecast at least a third of MPs, it turned out to be two fifths), and he carried on.
To be fair, these were the easy predictions, alongside forecasting Conservative defeats in the Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton by-elections to be held on 23 June. Where I metaphorically placed a bet with longer odds was on an accumulation of bad news – and the Privileges Committee investigation of Boris Johnson’s statements about Downing Street parties, in particular – making the continuation of Johnson’s premiership intolerable even to the current Conservative Party. And assuming that all this happened, I made the argument that Liz Truss was more likely than any other candidate to succeed him, although I did not put her chances of prevailing above 50 per cent.
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