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10 December 2021

Tory poll lead hit hard by the Downing Street Christmas party revelations

All three of the recent surveys now show Labour ahead of the Conservatives – one by as much as six points.

By Ben Walker

Three snap polls taken in the immediate aftermath of the Downing Street Christmas party revelations have found that support for the Conservative Party has been hit hard in terms of voting intention.

All three surveys now show Labour ahead. Survation has them ahead by six points, the highest since before the 2019 general election, whereas YouGov and Redfield & Wilton have put them ahead by four points.

Scratching beneath the surface of these surveys reveals a collapse in morale among the Tory voting ranks. Almost one in four of those who backed the party in 2019 now say they aren't sure about sticking with them next time round. The number of Tory voters switching to Labour, meanwhile, is markedly low, suggesting the party has gained by default.

As psephologist Paula Surridge notes, these leads for Labour are therefore not yet “on solid ground”.

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[See also: Could these be the last days of Boris Johnson?]

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